Antalyaspor had 80% of the ball and still lost at home

Antalyaspor had the bulk of the chances in a 2-1 defeat to Bodrum FK, but Bodrum turned their few openings into the two goals that mattered.

Antalyaspor had 80% of the ball at the Corendon Airlines Park, which is a long way above the 60.2% they usually keep at home. Possession alone rarely decides a match, though, and this one went to Bodrum FK. The numbers show why it was not a straightforward night for the home side.

Look at the chances instead. Antalyaspor took 17 shots, against an average of 11.1 for them at home, and 13 of those came from inside the box. Expected goals, a rough measure of how good a chance is judged to be from where and how it was taken, came to 2.08, well above their usual figure of 1.2 at home. Those are the marks of a side that was creating plenty of danger.

Bodrum had almost the reverse picture. They held 20% of the ball, where they normally have 45.7% away from home, and managed just six shots against an average of 8.9. Their expected goals of 0.89 sat below their usual 1.0, so their openings were not better than normal. Yet they scored more goals than they typically manage on the road, which is the difference that counted.

The first goal came from Ruben Providence in the 41st minute. Ahmet Sağat brought Antalyaspor level in the 54th, and the match looked set to be shared until Berkay Aslan put Bodrum back in front in the 74th minute. Ege Bilsel provided the assist for that winner, a finish that came from a chance worth far less than the home side's best efforts. Diogo Sousa made four saves in the Bodrum goal, while Antalyaspor's goalkeeper made three.

Defensively, the picture is more mixed than the scoreline suggests. The chances Bodrum created were worth 0.89 in expected goals, which is less than the 1.36 that Antalyaspor usually concede at home. Their problem was not the quality of what they allowed but the conversion of it, as they conceded two goals, which is more than the 1.6 they usually let in on their own ground. A better-than-usual shot quality against them still ended in a loss.

Antalyaspor now have a home record of six wins and five defeats from eleven matches. Bodrum have collected 14 points from their away matches, with three wins, five draws and three defeats in those eleven games.

Player of the matchA. Sağat1 goal7.9

Berkay Aslan1 goal7.7

R. Providence1 goal7.5

E. Bilsel1 assist7.1