Aris won on chances worth less than they usually are

Aris beat Atromitos 3-1 from fewer expected goals than usual, while Atromitos conceded more than their chances suggested.

Aris Thessalonikis were in front after three minutes, when Fabiano finished a move that Bruma had started, and they went on to win 3-1 against Atromitos. What stands out is how little they had to work with. Expected goals (xG), a rough measure of how likely each chance was to go in, came to 0.81 for Aris, well below the 1.61 they average at home this season. They scored three all the same.

Possession was close to what Aris usually have, 55% against a home average of 54%, so the ball on its own tells us little. The shots tell more. They took 13, fewer than the 17.8 they average at home but still above the league's 11.9 per team, and nine of them came from inside the box, where most goals are scored.

Atromitos had 45% of the ball, under the 54.3% they usually keep when they travel, and they did not have much of it to work with. Their goal came in the ninth minute, Serginho finishing a pass from Steven Zuber, and it matched their away average of 1.0 goals a game. Their chances were worth 0.59, a touch above the 0.51 they usually produce away, so their attack was roughly ordinary.

The defensive picture runs the other way. Atromitos conceded three, against an away average of 1.5, yet Aris's chances added up to less than the 1.21 expected goals they usually give up in away matches. That means the goals came from fewer openings than Atromitos normally allow, which points at what happened in front of goal rather than how many chances there were.

The four goals were more than the league's average of 2.7 per match, so this was an open game by the standards of the division's typical match. Aris also won five corners to Atromitos's one, which gave them more chances to put the ball into dangerous areas from set pieces. Both sides had two saves or fewer from their goalkeepers, so the finishing did most of the work.

Two yellow cards went to Aris and three to Atromitos, and nobody was sent off. In the 90th minute VAR, the video review of decisions, cancelled a penalty for Atromitos, with the incident logged against Steven Zuber. The scoreline held after that.

Aris are fifth in the table, and their last four matches read two wins, a draw and a defeat. Atromitos, 13th, have taken two points from six away matches and have not won any of them.

Player of the matchC. Kouamé1 goal8.1

Fabiano1 goal7.7

S. Zuber1 assist7.6

Serginho1 goal7.4