Chicago came back from behind on fewer chances than usual

Chicago Fire won 2-1 at Atlanta United FC after falling behind early, and the chances they created were worth less than they usually are.

Chicago Fire were behind after four minutes and still won at Atlanta Stadium. Tomás Jacob gave Atlanta United FC the lead with a goal set up by Miguel Almirón, but Anton Saletros levelled at 30 minutes and Anzor Mekvabishvili put Chicago in front at 51. Coming back from a goal down is ordinary enough in football, but this comeback came from a side that did less in front of goal than it normally does.

Start with the ball, because it runs against the usual pattern for both teams. Chicago had 61% of possession, which is more than the 50.8% they average when they play away. Atlanta had only 39%, well below the 49.7% they usually keep at home. Possession only tells part of the story, though, and it was the chances that decided how this match should be read.

Chicago took eight shots, which is well short of the 13.7 they average on the road. Expected goals, a measure of how likely each chance was to go in based on where and how it was taken, came to a total well below their usual 1.23. Chicago scored twice anyway, a useful reminder that a handful of good finishes can outweigh a quiet attacking night on the chance count.

Atlanta were less effective at the other end. They managed only five shots, far below the 12.9 they usually take at home, and their own expected goals fell short of their normal figure of 1.3. Their only goal came from Jacob's early finish, so the home side was not short of attacking intent so much as short of clear openings. Chicago's chances were worth less than the 1.52 Atlanta usually concede at home, which suggests their back line limited the quality of what came in.

Saletros was the standout performer, rated 8.6, and he scored the equaliser. Zinckernagel also found the net and was rated 8.2 before his day ended at the 68th minute. For Atlanta, Almirón was the most productive creator, rated 7.4 and credited with three key passes, meaning passes that led directly to a shot. His influence stood out even though his side ended up on the losing end.

Atlanta scored 1 goal, against a home average of 1.5, and conceded 2, compared with the 1.7 they usually give up at home. Chicago scored two, above the 1.6 they average away, and conceded one, below their usual 1.7 on the road. The league averages 3.5 goals per match, and this game produced three, so it was a quieter encounter than most in the division, with the result decided by a few sharp moments rather than a flood of chances.

Player of the matchA. Salétros1 goal · 1 assist8.6

P. Zinckernagel1 goal8.2

B. Embolo1 goal7.7

M. Almirón1 assist7.4