Bahia's Marcos Victor wins it with fewer chances than usual

Bahia beat Sao Paulo 3-2 at the Arena Fonte Nova with less of the ball and fewer good chances than they usually create, and Marcos Victor's 81st-minute goal settled it.

Bahia won 3-2 at the Arena Fonte Nova, and they did it with less of the ball and fewer good chances than they usually get at home. Marcos Victor scored the winner in the 81st minute, but the result was not safe until then, because Sao Paulo had drawn level before the interval.

Bahia struck first, with Rodrigo Nestor putting them ahead in the 6th minute and erick pulga doubling the lead in the 10th. Sao Paulo pulled back through Lucas Moura in the 43rd minute and Damian Bobadilla in the 45th, so the teams went in 2-2. Five goals in one match is nearly twice the 2.7 the league averages per game.

Expected goals, usually shortened to xG, gives each shot a value based on how often chances like it tend to go in, then adds those values up for the match. Bahia's total came to 1.17, below the 1.75 they average in home games, so their chances were poorer than usual. They still scored three, more than the 1.3 they average at home, which means they finished better than the chances deserved.

The shot count looks ordinary by comparison. Bahia took 13 shots, almost exactly their usual 13.2, but they had 47% of the ball against a home norm of 50.6%. Their attacking volume was typical, and the difference lay in how many of those shots were good ones and how many went in.

Sao Paulo had more of the ball, 53% against an away average of 50.9%, and took 14 shots. That was below their usual 15.4, and their xG of 0.91 sat well under the 1.32 they average on the road. They scored two, though, which is above their away average of one goal a match, so they too took their chances better than the quality of those chances suggested. Bahia's goalkeeper, Ronaldo, made four saves, while Sao Paulo's made just one.

Marcos Victor was the figure who mattered most for Bahia. He scored the winner, set up pulga's second goal, and won nine duels on the night, a rating of 7.4 reflecting how much he was involved. Rodrigo Nestor's opener was his first goal of the match, and Lucas Moura and Bobadilla gave Sao Paulo their equaliser between them.

Bahia's home record ranks seventh in the table, with 50 points from 32 games. Sao Paulo's away record ranks ninth, with 43 points from the same number of matches. Both sides leave the night with those totals, and the result shows how a team can win while creating fewer chances than it usually does.

Player of the matchErick Pulga1 goal7.7

Marcos Victor1 goal · 1 assist7.3

D. Bobadilla1 goal7.3

Rodrigo Nestor1 goal7.3