Beşiktaş beat Başakşehir 2-0 as the visitors' chances dry up

Beşiktaş beat Başakşehir 2-0 at the Tupras Stadium, with both goals coming late and the visitors creating far less than they usually do.

0.31 is the figure to hold on to from this match. That is Başakşehir's expected goals total, a measure of the quality of their chances, where each shot is valued by how often shots like it go in. It sits well below the 1.39 they usually produce on the road. Beşiktaş had 65% of the ball, a little more than the 60.9% they average at home, but it was the visitors' lack of clear openings that shaped the afternoon.

Beşiktaş's own attack was close to ordinary. They produced 1.73 expected goals against a home average of 1.67, and took 17 shots, 13 of them from inside the box. Nothing about how often they shot stands out for this side. What stands out is how little the other end gave back, and that is a different kind of story from a team simply finding space.

Beşiktaş usually concede goals at a steady rate on their own ground, and here they conceded none. Alexander Nübel kept the clean sheet and made four saves along the way, so the defensive work was real but not overwhelming. The shot count does most of the explaining: Başakşehir's chances were few enough that the goalkeeper was rarely forced into anything dramatic.

Başakşehir's nine shots were fewer than the 11.5 they average away from home, and only four of them were on target. They held 35% of the ball, well short of the 51.8% they usually manage. They also committed 17 fouls, more than double Beşiktaş's eight, which is a lot of whistles for a side that spent so long without the ball. Those are the numbers the scoreline hides.

The game stayed level until the 76th minute, when Oh Hyeon-Gyu put Beşiktaş ahead. J. Olaitan added a second in the 89th minute, so the margin came from two late goals rather than a steady build-up of chances. Umut Güneş had come on at 78, too late to change the shape of the match. Both goals arrived in the last quarter of an hour, which is why the closing stages look so different from the rest of the game.

Oh was the standout for the home side, rated 7.9 as the highest mark on either team. His goal was one of his two shots, both of which were on target, and he won three duels. Muhammed Şengezer made four saves for Başakşehir and was rated 6.7, a fair mark for a goalkeeper who was kept busy in a game they could not stay in. The two players who did the most to decide the result were the scorers, not the defenders.

Beşiktaş sit sixth in the table on 15 points, and Başakşehir are twelfth on 11. The win is the kind that keeps a side level with the teams around it, while the visitors leave with a lot of hard work and not much to show for the shots they had.

Player of the matchHyeon-gyu Oh1 goal7.9

Leandro Trossard2 chances created7.6

Alexander Nübel4 saves7.5

Emmanuel Agbadou1 chance created7.5