Two penalties settle Bologna v Monza, and Monza miss one

Bologna beat Monza 2-1 with the ball far more often than usual, but it was the penalties, not the passing, that settled the match.

Penalties decided this one, and two of them were handed out after a video review by the referee's assistants. Gustavo Varela gave Monza the lead from the spot in the sixth minute. Bologna were awarded a penalty of their own at 56 minutes, and Federico Bernardeschi converted it three minutes later to put them ahead. Monza then received a penalty at 77 minutes after another video check, and Patrick Cutrone missed it at 81.

Bologna had equalised before any of that, at 33 minutes, when Tommaso Pobega scored from a pass by Juan Miranda. Miranda's rating of 7.7 was the highest of any player listed for either side, and he had 8 duels won, the most of anyone on the pitch. Bologna also had 60% of the ball, well above the 45.6% they usually keep at home. Possession is simply the share of time a side spends on the ball, and it does not guarantee chances.

The shots did not follow the ball. Bologna had 10 shots, fewer than the 11.6 they usually take at home, so the time on the ball was not turned into attempts at the normal rate. Expected goals, a measure of how good each chance was based on where it came from, tells a different story. Bologna's 1.71 sits well above their usual 1.16, and seven of their shots came from inside the box, which is where the best chances are found.

Monza finished with 40% of the ball, below the 44.2% they usually keep when away from home. They managed five shots, far short of the 12.2 they average on the road, but their expected goals of 1.69 was still above their normal 1.46. In other words, they had fewer attempts than usual, but the ones they took were in better positions. Their goal came from the penalty, and their only other real chance of the afternoon went with the one that was missed.

Serie A sides average 14.5 shots per match, so both teams finished below that figure, and Bologna were the closer of the two. Monza committed 19 fouls to Bologna's 13, which means they spent a fair part of the match stopping Bologna's attacks rather than starting their own. The league averages 3.3 goals per match, and this one had three, so the scoring was close to the usual level even though the chances were unusual.

Juan Miranda's 7.7 reflects a player who was involved from start to finish, and his pass for Pobega's equaliser was the moment the game first tilted Bologna's way. Monza's 19 fouls and five shots tell the same story from the other side: a side that gave the ball away often and had to rely on a penalty to take the lead.

At home this season Bologna have won three, drawn two and lost four of their nine matches, while Monza have lost six of their nine away games.

Player of the matchJuan Miranda1 assist7.7

T. Pobega1 goal7.2

S. Goglichidze13 duels won6.8

N. Casale7 duels won6.8