Bristol City won at Bolton with less ball and far better chances

Bolton had most of the ball and most of the shots, but Bristol City's winner by Scott Twine, after Sam Bellis's equaliser in the 84th minute, came from the better chances.

Bristol City won at Bolton with just 35% of the ball, and what matters is what they did with the chances they made. Ballard put them ahead in the 13th minute, Sheehan levelled for Bolton three minutes later, and Dalby's goal in the 57th put the home side in front again. Bellis equalised in the 84th minute and Twine scored the winner in the 90th, so the visitors came back after most of the second half had gone against them.

Bolton had far more of the ball than they usually do. Across 11 home games they have averaged 49.9% possession, so 65% was a clear jump. Bristol, who average 46.1% when they play away, were pushed well below that normal share. Possession, the proportion of the ball each side keeps, only means something once it is set against what a team usually manages.

Bolton's shooting was plentiful. They took 19 efforts, well above their home average of 12.4, and nine of them came from outside the box. Their chances, measured by expected goals (xG), a rough score for how likely each chance was to go in, added up to 1.28. That is close to their usual 1.24, so Bolton took more shots without creating better ones.

Bristol took only 12 shots, fewer than their away average of 13.3, but eight of them were on target and 11 came from inside the penalty area. Those chances were worth 2.68 xG, where they normally produce chances worth 1.05 when away from home. Bolton, who usually let in chances worth 1.73 at home, gave up the same total here, so the visitors were the side that found the better openings.

Five goals in one match is above the league's usual 2.9 per game. Bristol scored three, more than three times their away average of 0.8, which is the biggest departure from normal on either side. Bolton scored two, above their home mark of 1.3, but they also conceded three when they usually concede 1.8. Both sides finished the afternoon scoring above what they normally manage.

Thierry Gale and Atsuki Ito both produced the assists that set up Bolton's goals, while Sheehan, rated 8.2, scored the first. For Bristol, Jason Knight set up Ballard's opener, Cameron Pring crossed for Bellis's equaliser, and Jed Wallace provided the pass for Twine's winner. Bristol's late goals came from players who had the ball in dangerous areas rather than from the sustained pressure Bolton had enjoyed earlier.

Bolton are 19th in the table with 14 points from 12 games. Bristol City are 15th with 15 points from the same number of matches, and this win lifts them above their rivals on the points table.

Player of the matchJ. Sheehan1 goal8.2

S. Bell1 goal8.2

D. Ballard1 goal8.1

S. Dalby1 goal7.9