Salech missed a penalty, then scored the winner nine minutes later
Cardiff1 – 0Birmingham 
Cardiff beat Birmingham at home with the better chances, despite having less of the ball than usual.
Yousef Salech had a penalty and did not score from it. He missed in the 22nd minute, then put Cardiff ahead in the 31st, with Ollie Tanner credited with the assist. That goal was the only one of the afternoon, and it was enough for Cardiff to beat Birmingham at the Cardiff City Stadium.
Cardiff had less of the ball than they usually do. Possession, the share of time a side spends in control of it, was 52% here, against a home average of 60.7%. What they did with it was more telling: 10 of their 16 shots came from inside the box, the area where most goals are scored, and four of those shots were on target. The total of 16 was close to their usual figure.
Ball possession
The fairest measure of chance quality is expected goals, or xG, which rates each shot by how often one like it goes in. Cardiff's chances added up to 2.4 xG, above their home average of 1.82 and the league's usual 1.39 per side. Birmingham's came to 0.92, which is below their away average of 1.47. Cardiff usually concede about 1.85 xG at home, so Birmingham's chances were well short of what the home side normally faces.
Birmingham managed seven shots, none of them from outside the box, and only two were on target. The league average is 13.1 shots per side, so this was a thin return. Their away average is 1.9 goals a game, and they scored none. Birmingham's keeper had to make three saves, one more than Cardiff's keeper, which is the sort of work that keeps a side level for longer.
Salech's afternoon was a mix of the miss and the goal, and he took eight shots, more than anyone else on the pitch. Jack Moylan, who came on in the 87th minute, won 11 of his duels and made five tackles, the sort of quiet work a scoreline rarely records. Moylan did not score or assist, but his involvement shows in the numbers that matter for a side defending a lead.
Birmingham made three substitutions in the 64th minute, then two more later, while Cardiff made their first changes at 68. Birmingham committed 19 fouls to Cardiff's 10, and both sides picked up cards. Cardiff's home form has been mixed, with two wins, two draws and two defeats from their last six games at the Cardiff City Stadium. Birmingham have won four and lost one of their last six away.
Cardiff sit 20th in the table with 11 points from 11 games, while Birmingham are fourth on 20 points. The side fourth in the table left without a goal, and Cardiff, 20th, left with the three points.
Y. Salech1 goal
W. Fish1 chance created
J. Moylan3 chances created
A. Robertson2 chances created