Palace had the ball and the chances, but Newcastle had the goals

Newcastle won 2-0 at Selhurst Park with two goals just after half-time, while Crystal Palace had more of the ball and more shots than usual.

Crystal Palace had more of the ball at Selhurst Park than they usually do and created more openings than most games in this league produce, yet Newcastle left with the points. Both goals came early in the second half, William Osula in the 47th minute and Harvey Barnes in the 58th, and they settled the match. Everything else in the figures has to be read in that light.

Expected goals, usually shortened to xG, is a way of judging the quality of chances by where and how each shot was taken, so one clear chance counts for far more than a speculative effort from distance. Palace's figure here was 1.75, which is above their usual home figure of 1.35. They also took 16 shots, nine of them from inside the box, so the problem was not a lack of territory or effort. It was that the chances they made were not turned into goals.

Palace had 52% of the ball, which is well above the 42% they usually keep at home, but that possession did not carry them into the penalty area often enough to change the score. Their seven shots from outside the box were a sign of how they were forced to finish, and five of their attempts were blocked before they reached the goalkeeper. A side can hold the ball and still be kept away from the goal, and that appears to be what happened here.

Newcastle had less of the ball than usual, with 48% against their usual 52% away from home, and they also created less, with an xG of 1.03 against their normal 1.46. What they did have was ruthless. Two of their ten shots were on target, and both went in, which is why their two goals were more than their usual away return. Jacob Murphy's pass set up Osula's finish, and Amar Dedić provided the assist for Barnes. A Joe Willock goal in the 53rd minute was disallowed after a VAR check, so the lead stayed at two.

Newcastle's defence had its own test. Palace's chances carried an xG of 1.75, which is more than Newcastle usually concede away from home, yet Newcastle's goalkeeper, L. Horníček, made four saves and kept a clean sheet. Newcastle were not reduced to ten men, and neither side was sent off, so no dismissal changes how the match should be read. Each side picked up three yellow cards, and the fouls were close, with 12 for Palace and 10 for Newcastle.

Palace's home results this season have been mixed, with two wins, one draw and four defeats from their seven matches. Their home goals total nine and their goals conceded total 17, which is the context for a match in which they created more than their usual share of chances but still could not score.

Player of the matchW. Osula1 goal7.9

H. Barnes1 goal7.8

J. Murphy1 assist7.7

D. Burn6 duels won7.6