Dundee Utd scored more than their chances, Aberdeen less

Dundee Utd beat Aberdeen 3-2 at CalForth Construction Arena, scoring more than their chances suggested while Aberdeen scored less than theirs.

Zidane Iqbal gave Dundee Utd the lead after 14 minutes, and Dylan Tait's goal at 27 put them 2-1 up over Aberdeen. The finding that matters most sits in the chances rather than the scoreline. Expected goals, or xG, rates each shot by how often shots from that spot tend to go in, so it measures quality rather than quantity. Dundee Utd's shots added up to 1.43 xG, and they turned that into three goals and a 3-2 win.

Aberdeen had 55% of the ball, above the 46.3% they average over a season. They also took 20 shots, well above their usual 11.9 and the 13.9 that a side in this league typically produces. Those shots were worth 1.46 xG, close to the 1.41 they normally generate. Aberdeen did not find better chances than usual, just a great many more of them, and two went in through Nesta Guinness-Walker and Connor Patrick Ronan.

Dundee Utd held 45% of the ball, below the 51.8% they usually keep, and took 13 shots, slightly under their usual 14.4. Those 13 efforts were worth more than they normally produce, with a season average of 1.11 xG. Ten of the shots came from inside the box, where chances are most likely to be scored. That is the real difference between the two sides: fewer shots, but better ones.

Tait was the most influential figure by the numbers. He scored at 27, assisted Iqbal's opener and also set up Zachary Sapsford's goal, and his 8.7 rating was the highest on either side. Ronan levelled at 2-2 after 56 minutes. Sapsford then had a goal ruled out at 62 after a review by the video assistant referee, before he scored the winner at 72.

Kevin Nisbet supplied the assist for Guinness-Walker's equaliser and had three shots of his own, yet none of them found the net. Five of Dundee Utd's shots were on target to Aberdeen's three, which helps explain why the home side scored more of their chances. Aberdeen won eight corners to Dundee Utd's three, a sign they often worked in the attacking third without turning that pressure into goals.

Dundee Utd are sixth with 12 points from nine matches, and their home record reads three wins, three draws and three defeats. Aberdeen are seventh with 11 points, and their away record is three wins, two draws and four defeats. Dundee Utd's most recent win came straight after a defeat, while Aberdeen's last away match ended 3-0.

Player of the matchD. Tait1 goal · 2 assists8.7

Zidane Iqbal1 goal7.9

Z. Sapsford1 goal7.7

C. Ronan1 goal7.4