Ashley Hay's two late goals give Dundee a win after Kilmarnock's penalty

Dundee beat Kilmarnock 3-1 at Dens Park, with Ashley Hay scoring twice in the final seven minutes after Joe Hugill had levelled from the spot.

Kilmarnock had more of the ball than they usually do, created better chances than they usually do, and still left Dens Park beaten. The scores were level for the final quarter of an hour, and then they were not. Ashley Hay settled it late, scoring twice in the closing minutes as Dundee won 3-1 after Joe Hugill had equalised from the penalty spot.

Joseph Bevan had put Dundee ahead in the 32nd minute, set up by Ethan Hamilton, and the lead held for more than 40 minutes. Kilmarnock's penalty at 75 minutes was their first goal, and it brought them level. Hay then had a goal ruled out after a video review at 80 minutes, which meant Dundee had to wait until the 83rd minute to retake the lead, when he scored from Alan Forrest's assist. He added his second at 90 minutes.

Kilmarnock finished with 54% of the ball, well above the 42.6% they average away from home. Their expected goals, a measure of chance quality based on where shots are taken from, came to 2.13, against an away average of 1.18 and a league norm of 1.59 per team. That is a lot of chance for a side to have nothing to show until the penalty, and it is the clearest sign in the match that their attacking work did not turn into goals.

Dundee had 46%, a little above the 41.9% they average at home. Their 14 shots were above their home average of 11.6, and both teams took close to the league's usual 13.9 shots a side, so the match was not decided by volume. Dundee's three goals were well above their home average of 1.4, which is where the difference lay.

Hay had two shots, both on target, and he won 11 duels along the way. He was rated 9.1, the highest on the pitch, which is what a player earns when he decides a game in its closing minutes. Ethan Hamilton had five shots of his own, the most by any Dundee player, and he laid on Bevan's opener, so the home side's attack was not a one-man job.

Kilmarnock also picked up three yellow cards, for Cathal McCarthy, George Stanger and Michael-John Kamson-Kamara, while Dundee had none. They committed 13 fouls against Dundee's 7. Greg Kiltie, who came on for Kilmarnock at 76 minutes, had four shots and five passes that led to a shot in the time he played, which shows where the visitors' late threat came from.

Dundee sit fifth in the Premiership with 14 points from ten matches, and Kilmarnock are 11th on 8 points, having conceded 23 goals in those ten games.

Player of the matchA. Hay2 goals9.1

A. Forrest1 assist7.7

J. Bevan1 goal7.7

E. Hamilton1 assist7.6