Esenler fired 23 shots and came back from behind to win 3-2

Esenler Erokspor beat Keçiörengücü 3-2 after trailing early, and their shooting, not their share of the ball, is what sets this result apart.

Esenler Erokspor had 23 shots against Keçiörengücü, a volume the home side rarely reaches. Their usual home count is 11.1 a match, and a typical side in this league takes 11.6, so the total was roughly double their own norm. The quality of those chances, measured as expected goals (a score that adds up how likely each shot was to go in), came to 3.24, against a home average of 1.41. That gap is why a side that spent most of the first hour behind went on to win.

Keçiörengücü went in front in the 15th minute through Mame Biram Diouf, who was replaced in the 37th. Esenler held 55% of the ball, close to the 56.8% they usually keep at home, so possession was ordinary for them. Keçiörengücü had 45%, against their away norm of 44.1%. Neither side was unusual in who had the ball, which means the difference lay in what each team did with it.

Keçiörengücü's own shooting tells a different story. They managed seven attempts, well short of the 13.9 they average away from home, yet those chances were worth 1.36 expected goals, a little above their away average of 1.17. Three of the seven were on target, and the side still scored twice. They took fewer shots than usual and made each one count for more.

Esenler's goals arrived in a spell of about thirteen minutes. Faye scored in the 51st, Kubilay Kanatsızkuş followed two minutes later from a pass by Hayrullah Bilazer, and Bahadir Öztürk added a third in the 64th. Kanatsızkuş, who scored and was rated 8.1, the highest mark in the match. Their attack was also in the box, with 15 shots from inside the penalty area against 3 for the visitors.

Keçiörengücü's goalkeeper, M. Erdoğan, made four saves, twice the two Esenler's keeper needed. Esenler conceded two goals, above the 1.4 they usually give up at home, so the defence was more open than usual. Ismail Karaogul pulled one back for the visitors in the 78th minute, assisted by E. Develi, but it was too late to change the result.

Esenler's recent run reads two wins, two draws and two defeats from their last six matches. Keçiörengücü, away from home, have won two, drawn three and lost one of their last six. Those records are much closer to each other than the shot totals in this match, which is why the match stands out.

Esenler are fifteenth in the table and Keçiörengücü sixth, with both sides having played twelve matches.

Player of the matchK. Kanatsızkuş1 goal8.1

M. Faye1 goal7.9

M. Diouf1 goal7.6

M. Fofana1 assist7.5