Moreirense's early goals made Estoril's shooting count for little

Estoril had more of the ball and far more shots, but Moreirense were three goals up by half time and won 3-1.

Estoril had more of the ball and far more of the shots, but Moreirense were three goals up by the 28th minute, and that opening spell decided the match. Manuel Mendonça scored in the 12th minute, Tiago Andrade in the 15th and Nile John in the 28th. Everything Estoril did afterwards was played from behind.

Estoril had 57% of the ball, well above the 46.1% they average at home this season, so this was a much bigger share than they normally keep in front of their own supporters. Possession only matters if it turns into chances, though, and that is where the picture changes. Moreirense had 43%, a little more than their usual 36% away, so both sides held the ball more than normal.

Shots are where Estoril stood out. They took 24, against a home average of 12.1, and 18 of those came from inside the penalty area, which is the zone where most goals are scored. Moreirense took 13 against a usual 7.8 away, and a typical side in this league takes 11.7 in a match, so they were above both their own norm and the league's.

Expected goals, or xG, values each shot by how often shots of that kind go in, so a close chance counts for far more than a speculative effort from distance. Estoril's total was 1.68, against their usual 0.85 at home, so their chances were better as well as more numerous. They scored only one. Moreirense's figure was also well above their normal level away, and they scored three.

Moreirense did not need many chances, because the ones they had were used well. Four of their shots were on target and three of those became goals. At the other end, their goalkeeper André Ferreira made six saves, more than anyone else managed in the match, which kept the scoreline from getting away from them after the interval.

Estoril's only goal came in the 90th minute, through André Tiago Ramos das Neves, and it was a consolation rather than a turning point. Conceding three is far beyond what Estoril usually allow at home, where the average is 1.5 goals. Moreirense's chances were almost exactly the expected-goals figure Estoril usually concede at home, so the problem was how many of those chances went in.

Estoril's recent run was already poor, with three goals scored and nine conceded in their last six matches. They are now 18th with 2 points from 8 games, having won none, drawn 2 and lost 6. Moreirense are 12th on 8 points from 8, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, and this match had four goals in it, above the league's average of 2.7 per game.

Player of the matchTiago Andrade1 goal8.2

N. John1 goal8.2

André Ferreira6 saves7.8

Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça1 goal7.8