Estrela had 63% of the ball and 18 shots, and still lost

Estrela made more chances than usual at home and scored none, while Casa Pia won with a side that had less of the ball.

Estrela had the better of the chances at the Estadio Jose Gomes and still left with nothing. They took 18 shots, 14 of them from inside the box, and held 63% of the ball. Their usual figures are 12.5 shots and 51.4% possession, so they had more of both than normal. Their expected goals, a measure of how good a chance is judged by where and how it was struck, came to 1.72, above their usual 1.4. Yet they scored no goals at all, when at home they usually score 1.8 a game.

The explanation sits at the other end. Seven of Estrela's shots were blocked before they reached the goal, and only six were on target. Casa Pia's goalkeeper, Patrick Sequeira, had to make six saves, and that was the main test he faced. Estrela's own keeper, Léo Linck, made two saves, which tells you how little the visitors had to do at their end. Chances that are blocked or drift wide do not count on the scoreboard, however promising they look.

Casa Pia had only 37% of the ball, which is below their usual 43.5% away from home. They took ten shots, and four of them were on target. Their expected goals of 0.81 was well above the 0.53 they usually reach on the road, so the chances they created were better than their normal ones. The breakthrough came in the 31st minute, when João Rego finished a move that Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri had started, and from then on Estrela were the side needing to chase.

The second goal came late in the game. In the 90th minute Lawrence Ofori scored after a pass from Henrique Araújo, and his rating of 8.2 reflects how much that goal changed the afternoon for the visitors. Estrela had 14 shots from inside the box across the match, but none of them found the net. Their two central attackers in the second half could not change that, and the late goal settled a game that had been there to be taken by either side.

Estrela made five substitutions between the 61st and 83rd minutes, with Rafa Soares among the first changes. Their shape and personnel changed several times, and the chances kept coming, but the goals did not. Casa Pia made their own changes from the 60th minute onwards, and the game did not open up for Estrela in the way the shot count suggested it might. Two yellow cards went to Casa Pia and one to Estrela late on, in a game that was tight for long periods.

Estrela are tenth in the table with ten points from eight games, having won two, drawn four and lost two. Casa Pia are seventeenth with four points from the same number of matches, having won one, drawn one and lost six. The result leaves Casa Pia's away record in a better place than it was, while Estrela's chances at home are not yet turning into points.

Player of the matchL. Ofori1 goal8.2

João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo1 goal8.2

P. Sequeira6 saves8.0

M. El Boukammiri1 assist7.4