Union made the closer chances, but Cincinnati had the only goal

Philadelphia Union had more shots from close to goal than FC Cincinnati, but a 70th-minute strike from Ayoub Jabbari gave the home side the points.

Ayoub Jabbari scored in the 70th minute, and that single goal was the only one at TQL Stadium. Cincinnati won, but the match was not a simple story of one side playing well and the other playing badly. The numbers point somewhere more awkward: Philadelphia Union had more of the shots that come from close to goal, and the home side had the goal.

A useful way to judge chances is expected goals, usually shortened to xG, which gives each shot a value based on how often shots like it go in. Union's figure was 1.13, which is below their normal away level of 1.83, so even their better chances came in under what they usually create. Cincinnati's 1.1 was also under their home average of 1.45, so both sides created less than they normally do.

Union took 14 shots, and 11 of them came from inside the penalty box, which matters more than the total. That total sits below their away average of 16.3, so they were not firing more than usual, but they were getting closer when they did. Union also forced 12 corners, which are awarded when a defender sends the ball behind his own goal line, against just three for Cincinnati.

Most of Union's threat ran into the Cincinnati goalkeeper R. Celentano, who made six saves and earned the top rating of the match, an 8. Union's keeper made only one save at the other end, which shows how seldom Cincinnati tested him. Cincinnati's seven shots were well short of their home average of 15.4, so the home side did not need volume to find the one goal that mattered.

Possession was ordinary on both sides, and that is worth saying plainly. Cincinnati had 52% of the ball, close to their home average of 50.8%, while Union had 48%, not far from their away norm of 46.5%. The ball does not explain the result, and neither does the defence, since Cincinnati kept a clean sheet against a home average of 2.3 goals conceded, a clear improvement on what they usually allow.

Kaspar Wagner was the standout for Union, with a rating of 7.6, five tackles and four key passes, and Cincinnati's N. Hagglund won five of his duels. The shortfall for Union sits in front of goal: they had averaged 2.7 goals away from home and scored none here. The league as a whole averages 3.3 goals a match, so a single goal sits well below what the competition usually produces.

Form adds the last piece. Cincinnati had lost their two matches before this one, then won their most recent game after a run of defeats. Philadelphia, meanwhile, had gone unbeaten in their last six before this match, and this defeat ends their run of three straight wins.

Player of the matchR. Celentano6 saves8.0

K. Wagner4 chances created7.6

A. Jabbari1 goal7.4

Evander2 chances created7.2