FC Midtjylland's chances nearly doubled and they still lost

St. Truiden won at the MCH Arena with a first-half goal from F. Soelle, despite FC Midtjylland creating more expected goals.

FC Midtjylland's chances were worth 2.70 expected goals at the MCH Arena, and they still lost to St. Truiden. Expected goals, or xG, is a rough score for how good each shot was: a close-range tap-in counts for close to a full goal, a shot from distance for very little. Across their home games this season the side has averaged 1.37, and the average side in this league creates 1.29 a match, so the figure was roughly double their own normal output. That is the kind of gap a football fan notices before the scoreboard does, because it describes a night of near misses and poor finishing rather than a night without chances.

The only goal came in the 42nd minute, when F. Soelle scored for St. Truiden with R. Vanwesemael credited with the assist. The average match in this league produces 3.2 goals, and FC Midtjylland's own home average is 2.5, so a single goal is a quiet return for a side that usually scores more often than that. Three players were booked over the evening and nobody was sent off, so the result was decided by football rather than by a man short.

The ball told a reversed story. FC Midtjylland usually keep 57% of possession, yet here they had 43%, and St. Truiden held it for more than half the match. Possession is only a rough guide to who was in charge, but when the usual owner of the ball gives it up this often, it is worth noticing. The home side still found its way into dangerous positions, even without the ball for most of the game.

FC Midtjylland took 19 shots, against a usual 13, and most of them came from inside the penalty area. Only four were on target, though, while seven were blocked and eight went wide, which is where the gap between chances and goals opened up. St. Truiden had fewer efforts overall, 15 in total, but six of them were on target, and their expected goals sat above the league's usual figure.

The home goalkeeper, Nordin Bakker, made five saves and was rated 8.0, the kind of evening a keeper has when the chances keep arriving. The visiting goalkeeper had three saves to make, fewer than his opposite number, but the difference lay in how the chances were taken rather than in how many arrived. Those are the numbers that separate the two sides on the night, and they matter more than the total of shots.

Robert-Jan Vanwesemael was booked in the 11th minute, yet he still ended the game with the assist and a rating of 8.2. Soelle's goal was the only one of the match, and nothing that followed in the second half changed the outcome.

Player of the matchVisar Musliu6 duels won8.6

Sofus Johannesen5 chances created8.2

Robert-Jan Vanwesemael1 assist8.2

Nordin Bakker5 saves8.0