Porto's 4-0 came from more chances, not just more possession

Porto beat Estoril 4-0 at the Estádio do Dragão, with the ball, the shots and the better chances all in their favour.

Victor Froholdt scored in the fourth minute, with Eduardo Cossa providing the final pass, and Estoril spent the rest of the evening chasing a game they never looked like catching up in. An early goal does more than open the scoreboard. It decides which side has to take risks, and from that moment the match belonged to Porto.

Porto had 66% of the ball, well above their usual 55.2% at home. Estoril had 34%, below their usual 47.3% away. Porto completed 497 of their 562 passes, which suggests the possession was not just territory held for its own sake but ball movement that rarely broke down.

Porto also took far more shots than they normally do, 24 against a home average of 15.7. Expected goals, a measure that weighs each chance by where it came from and how it was struck, came to 3.13 for Porto against their usual 2.14. Estoril managed only 7 shots, and their expected goals of 0.64 sat below their away average of 0.99, so their attack was not the problem only because the chances never arrived.

Porto scored four from an expected total of 3.13, so they finished slightly better than the chances deserved, but the gap was small. The result was not built on a lucky afternoon. Estoril's goalkeeper, M. Turk, made seven saves, which tells you how often Porto were getting shots away. Estoril conceded four, against an away average of 1.7 goals.

Borja Sainz and Gabri Veiga both scored and both assisted, a double involvement that explains much of the second half. Sainz scored at 64 minutes, André Silva added one at 70, and Veiga finished it off at 73. Veiga finished with the highest rating of the night, 8.9, which fits a player who was involved in two of the four goals.

Estoril have now won none of their nine away matches, losing seven and drawing two. They have scored five goals on their travels and conceded fifteen, and they sit on two points from nine. This defeat fits that pattern, but it was also a heavier margin than their away average of conceding around 1.7 goals a game would have suggested.

Porto's home record reads nine wins from nine, with 21 goals scored and four conceded. The side who were ahead on possession, shots and chances at the start of the season are still the side who take the most from their own ground.

Player of the matchGabri Veiga1 goal · 1 assist8.9

Borja Sainz1 goal · 1 assist8.6

Victor Mow Froholdt1 goal7.8

André Silva1 goal7.6