Carrascal's 90th-minute penalty gives Flamengo the win

Flamengo beat Atletico-MG 3-2 at the Estádio do Maracanã after Jorge Carrascal's late penalty, with the visitors' chances far below their usual level.

Jorge Carrascal's penalty in the 90th minute gave Flamengo a 3-2 win over Atletico-MG at the Estádio do Maracanã, and it arrived in a match that had been level for the best part of half an hour. Renan Lodi had pulled the visitors back to 2-2, so the spot kick decided which side left with the points. Without it, the afternoon would have ended in a draw, which says as much about how closely the sides were matched as any single chance.

The first thing to notice about Flamengo is how much of the ball they had. They kept 72% of possession, well above the 60.7% they average in home matches, and they took 28 shots, against a usual 17.6. Eighteen of those came from inside the box, the area where most goals are scored, so they were not simply busier than normal. They were in the dangerous areas far more often.

Those shots were also better than usual. Expected goals, a measure that adds up how good each chance was based on where and how it was taken, came to 2.13 for Flamengo, compared with a home average of 1.84. The goals followed suit, with more scored in this match than their usual 2.2 at home, so the finishing kept pace with the chances.

Atletico-MG had a much quieter attacking afternoon. They managed just 5 shots, where they usually have 14.9 away from home, and held only 28% of the ball against a normal 53.5%. Their expected goals of 1.01 were also below their away norm of 1.56, yet Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte scored early on and Lodi equalised, so the few chances they made were well taken.

The defensive side of the story runs the other way. Flamengo usually concede 0.5 goals a game at home, and they let in two here. Their expected goals against usually sit at 0.84, and Atletico-MG's chances added up to more than that. Their goalkeeper was made to work, making six saves in the course of the match.

Gonzalo Plata gave Flamengo the lead in the 34th minute, with Guillermo Varela providing the assist, and Giorgian de Arrascaeta put them ahead seven minutes later. De Arrascaeta was Flamengo's highest-rated player at 8.2, and Samuel Lino created six chances for team-mates, a measure of passes that led directly to a shot. Their work mattered most in the first half, when the lead was built.

Flamengo are second in the table with 67 points, while Atletico-MG are sixth on 50.

Player of the matchG. de Arrascaeta1 goal8.2

G. Plata1 goal8.0

Samuel Lino1 assist7.7

J. Carrascal1 goal7.4