Erzurumspor beat Gaziantep with fewer chances and less of the ball

A late goal settled a 3-1 win at the Gaziantep Stadyumu, but the chances told a different story from the one the scoreboard does.

G. Giorbelidze's goal in the 90th minute gave Erzurumspor FK a 3-1 win at the Gaziantep Stadyumu, and it came after Gaziantep FK had pulled one back at 71. Erzurumspor had been two goals up at that point, so the finish was not a stroll for the visitors. Yet the match was less about the winner than about who made the better chances along the way.

Gaziantep FK had the ball for 62% of the match, well above the 52.1% they usually hold at home. They also took 19 shots, against an average of 12.9, and 12 of those came from inside the box. Their expected goals figure, which adds up the chance of each shot going in based on where and how it was taken, came to 1.05. That is almost exactly where they usually sit at home, so the volume was up while the quality stayed ordinary.

Erzurumspor FK had 38% of the ball, which is below the 45.9% they average away from home. They had eight shots, close to their usual 8.9, and their expected goals came to 0.62, below the 0.81 they normally generate on the road. In other words, they created less than they usually do and still scored three times, against an average of 0.7 for them away. Miguel Cardoso was the most influential of them, scoring once from his three efforts, and Amar Gerxhaliu scored from his only shot.

Gaziantep's finishing was the mirror image. A single goal, from Calhanoglu, is below the 1.1 they usually score at home, despite the extra shots. Their defence was also weaker than usual, with three goals conceded against an average of 1.7 at home. Ertuğrul Taşkıran made seven saves in the Erzurumspor goal, which kept the match close for longer than the chance count suggested it should be.

Gaziantep were already struggling for results before this, having won only one of their last six matches. Erzurumspor's recent form is steadier, with three wins and a draw in their last six, and the three points moved them up the table. They now sit 11th with 11 points, while Gaziantep FK are 14th on 8. The gap in the table is easy to read, but the match itself reads more clearly through the chances than the score.

For the home side the question coming out of the afternoon is simple: they had the ball, the shots and the greater share of the chances, and still left with nothing. For the visitors it is the opposite, a side that spent most of the afternoon without the ball and still came home with the points. The winner came late, but the work that produced it had been done well before the 90th minute.

Player of the matchMiguel Cardoso1 goal8.0

Amar Gerxhaliu1 goal7.9

Abakar Sylla5 duels won7.2

Ertuğrul Taşkıran7 saves7.2