Forest made the better chances, but Ipswich kept them level

Nottingham Forest took 15 shots from inside the box and still shared the points, 1-1 at Portman Road, because Ipswich scored from very little.

Fifteen of Nottingham Forest's 17 shots came from inside the box, and they still left Portman Road with a point rather than a win. Their expected goals figure, which adds up how likely each shot was to go in so that a score of 1.0 means one likely goal, reached 2.33. That is well above the 1.33 they average on the road, so the quality of their chances was the real story of the afternoon.

Forest had the lead in the 13th minute, when Neco Williams finished after a pass from Daniel Muñoz. Ipswich were level by the 41st, through Julio Enciso, whose 7.7 rating was the highest of anyone wearing blue. Ipswich were not short of a goal from open play so much as of chances, and that goal was the one they needed.

Ipswich had 49% of the ball, which is above the 43.1% they usually keep at home, so they were not the side pinned back. What they lacked was shooting. Seven shots is well short of the 10.3 they average at Portman Road, and their expected goals of 0.49 is a long way below the 1.65 they usually produce here. Enciso took four of those seven attempts himself.

The home defence did better than the chances suggest. Forest's expected goals of 2.33 was below the 2.68 Ipswich usually concede at home, so the visitors created less against them than they normally would. Ipswich's goalkeeper made three saves, and Forest's own keeper had to deal with only two shots on target from the home side, which tells you how few real openings Ipswich produced.

Forest's share of the ball, 51%, was close to the 45.1% they usually have away, so the match did not tilt far from their normal pattern. The corners told a sharper story: Forest won five, and Ipswich won none. Forest also had five shots on target to Ipswich's three, which fits with their larger share of the best openings.

Ipswich came into the game 10th in the table with nine points, having lost four of their seven matches. Forest sat 19th, so a point away from home mattered more to them than it did to their hosts. The draw leaves Ipswich still in the upper half and Forest still looking for a result that matches the chances they made.

Player of the matchN. Williams1 goal7.8

D. Muñoz1 assist7.7

J. Enciso1 goal7.7

N. Milenković1 chance created6.9