Down to ten from minute 13, St Johnstone drew 2-2 at Rugby Park

Kilmarnock had most of the ball and the better chances, but St Johnstone scored twice from far fewer of them and came away with a point.

Toby Steward was sent off for St Johnstone in the 13th minute, a minute after a review upgraded his booking to a red card. From then on St Johnstone were a man short for more than 75 minutes at Rugby Park. Kilmarnock had already taken the lead in the 14th minute, when Cathal McCarthy scored from a pass by Djenairo Daniels. The game still ended level, and the numbers explain part of why.

Kilmarnock had 63% of the ball, a long way above the 43.6% they usually have at home this season. They took 18 shots, against an average of 11.1, and 15 of those came from inside the box. Expected goals, a rough measure of how good a chance was based on how often chances like it go in, put their total at 2.57. That is well above the 1.33 they usually reach at home, so their chances were not only more numerous but better.

St Johnstone had 37% of the ball, below the 46.3% they usually manage away, and six shots, where they normally take close to ten. Their expected goals came to 0.79, short of the 1.23 they usually create on their travels. Ten men with less ball and fewer chances is not a side that should have scored twice, which makes what happened next the real story of the afternoon.

Danny schmidt levelled in the 40th minute, finishing a move that began with a pass from Enes Alic. Kilmarnock responded within a minute, when Djenairo Daniels scored from a pass by Joe Hugill to make it 2-1. Joel Cotterill brought St Johnstone level in the 65th minute. Two goals from chances that added up to less than one between them is the kind of finishing that wins games, and it kept the visitors in this one.

Kilmarnock let in chances worth 0.79 expected goals, far below the 2.45 they usually concede at home, so their defence allowed less than it normally does. Yet they still conceded twice, which is slightly below their usual home total of 2.4 goals conceded. Their own two goals were more than the one they usually score at home, so the scoring was above their norm even if the result was not. Kilmarnock also had 18 shots and a goalkeeper who made only one save, so the visitors had to work harder to put the ball past them than the scoreline suggests.

Kilmarnock have won two of their last six matches, wherever they played, while St Johnstone have taken three draws and a win from theirs. Going into the game Kilmarnock were 12th with 8 points from 11 matches, and St Johnstone were 8th with 13. A point each leaves both clubs where the table had them before kick-off, with the same unanswered question about how a side with less of the ball and fewer chances kept pace with the one that had both.

Player of the matchD. Daniels1 goal · 1 assist8.4

D. Schmidt1 goal7.8

C. McCarthy1 goal7.4

J. Cotterill1 goal7.3