Priske's two goals give Birmingham the win as Lincoln keep the ball

Lincoln had more of the ball than they usually do at home, but Birmingham took the better chances and won 3-1 at Sincil Bank.

Lincoln had more of the ball at Sincil Bank than they usually do at home, and it did them little good. They held 54% of possession against a home average of 37.5%, yet Birmingham left with a 3-1 win. Keeping the ball means your side is the one moving it around and pushing forward, but a team can own possession and still lose the battle over the chances that count.

August Priske settled much of it. He scored at 16 minutes and again at 60, and all four of his attempts were on target. Those two goals were the difference, because the rest of the match was closer than the scoreline suggests.

Birmingham took 17 shots, above their away average of 11.8, while Lincoln's 12 were close to their usual figure at home. Expected goals, or xG, scores each shot by how often shots of that kind tend to go in, and it points the same way. Birmingham reached 2.21, well above their away average of 1.39, while Lincoln reached 1.62 against a home average of 1.18. Both sides created more than usual, but Birmingham's surplus was the bigger one.

Lincoln did pull a goal back. Tom Bayliss scored at 63 minutes, three minutes after Priske's second, with Mikkel Ladefoged setting him up. That one goal is about what Lincoln usually manage at home, against a home average of 1.2. The problem was at the other end, where Lincoln conceded three against a home average of 1.8, and Alex Cochrane's strike at 73 minutes, set up by Ryan Allsop, ended any hope of a late revival.

Birmingham's three goals were also above their away average of 1.7, and the four goals in the match sat above the league's usual 2.9 per game. Discipline did not separate the sides: Lincoln picked up three yellow cards, Birmingham two, and nobody was sent off. This was an open afternoon where one side was simply sharper in front of goal.

The wider form points in the same direction. Birmingham's last six results include four wins and only four goals conceded. Lincoln's last six brought two wins, a draw and three defeats, with 14 goals let in. Birmingham now sit seventh on 20 points from 12 matches, and Lincoln remain 15th on 15 points from the same number of games.

Player of the matchA. Priske2 goals8.9

J. Beadle3 saves7.5

M. Ladefoged1 assist6.8

A. Cochrane1 goal6.8