Mardin 1969 beat Manisa on less ball and fewer shots

Mardin 1969 won 2-1 at home to Manisa F.K. with fewer shots and less of the ball, because their chances were far better.

The match turned on a penalty. Julien Anziani scored from the spot in the 26th minute, after a VAR review had confirmed the award, to cancel out the early goal Uğur Adem Gezer had given Mardin 1969 in the 18th. Olarenwaju Kayode put the home side back in front just before half-time, and Mardin held on to win 2-1 at the 21 Kasım Stadium.

Manisa had the greater share of the ball, 55% to Mardin's 45%. That is a little above Manisa's usual share on the road. Mardin's 45% is clearly above their own home average of 40.2%, so they had more of the ball than they usually do at home, and still it was the side with less possession that scored twice.

Manisa also took more shots, 12 to 9. Their total was close to what they usually manage away from home, while Mardin's was below what they normally take at home, so the number of shots alone does not explain the result. The difference lay in the quality of the chances, and that is where the match changes shape.

Quality here is measured by expected goals, or xG, a score for how likely a shot was to go in based on where it was taken and how it was struck. Manisa's chances came to 2.23 expected goals, well above the 1.62 they usually produce on the road and the league average of 1.31 per side. Mardin's came to 1.58, more than double their usual home return of 0.72.

Mardin also conceded more than usual on the chance count. Manisa's expected goals total was far above the 1.21 that Mardin normally concede at home, so the home side were tested far more than their two goals suggest. Their winner came from a smaller number of better chances, which is exactly what a side with less of the ball needs to do.

Anziani was Manisa's most dangerous player on the numbers, with five shots, two of them on target, and three key passes, as well as the penalty. For Mardin, Kayode scored and had four shots, two on target, and the highest rating of the day, 8.1. Gezer's goal came from a Tonio Teklić assist, and Teklić also had three key passes of his own.

Mardin 1969 are seventh in the table on 18 points from 11 games, while Manisa F.K. are 17th with 10 from the same number of matches.

Player of the matchO. Kayode1 goal8.1

U. Gezer1 goal7.7

T. Teklić1 assist7.3

J. Anziani1 goal7.1