Moreirense won late with more of the ball than they usually have

Nile John's goal in the 90th minute beat Estrela 2-1, and Moreirense's win came with fewer good chances than they usually make at home.

Nile John settled this one in the 90th minute, turning a 1-1 draw into a 2-1 win for Moreirense over Estrela at the Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas. The game had been level for more than half an hour. Landerson had given the home side the lead early in the second half, and Lovro Zvonarek equalised for Estrela seven minutes later. The winner arrived after a reply rather than in a quiet spell, and it turned a point into three.

Moreirense had 53% of the ball, meaning they spent that share of the match in possession. Their home average this season is 36.8%, so they had far more of it than they usually do at home. Keeping the ball for longer is not the same as creating more, but it did give them more time on the Estrela half of the pitch.

The shots tell a more careful story. Moreirense took 11 shots, four of them on target, and their expected goals figure came to 0.47. Expected goals, usually shortened to xG, adds up how likely each shot was to go in based on where and how it was struck. Their home average is 0.68, so the chances were thinner than normal. Yet they scored twice, well above their home average of 1.2 goals a game, which means the goals came from chances that were worse than usual.

Estrela went the other way. They had 47% of the ball, below their away average of 52.7%, and they also had 11 shots. Only one of those was on target, though nine came from inside the box, where most goals are scored. Their expected goals figure of 0.74 was well short of the 1.47 they average away from home. Zvonarek's equaliser was the clearest return from their attack, and his rating of 7.5 was the highest among the visitors.

At the other end, Moreirense conceded one goal, below their home average of 1.8. Estrela conceded two, close to their away average of 1.9. So the visitors let in about what they usually do, while the home side let in fewer than they normally do. John, who had three shots and was rated 7.9, was the best player on the pitch by that measure and finished the chance that counted.

Estrela have won only once in their last six away matches, and that single win came after a run of defeats. Moreirense, meanwhile, have a mixed home run, with two wins in their last six, and this result lifts them above the line they had been treading. Moreirense now sit 10th with 11 points from nine games, and Estrela are 12th on 10, with both sides having played nine.

Player of the matchN. John1 goal7.9

L. Zvonarek1 goal7.5

Landerson1 goal7.5

Gilberto Batista7 duels won7.3