Nacional won on a fraction of the ball and very few chances

Miguel Baeza's early goal beat Braga, who had most of the ball and the better chances but could not find a way through.

Miguel Baeza scored the only goal at the Estádio da Madeira after 19 minutes, with Song Min-kyu providing the pass, and the goal stood once VAR had checked it. Nacional then spent most of the evening without the ball and still left with the win. It is a result that reads simply on the scoreboard, but the figures suggest it was a story about who was allowed to shoot.

Nacional usually keep about half the ball at home, 49.4% this season, so their 28% was well short of their normal share. SC Braga average 58.4% in away games and took 72%, a clear rise on their usual figure. Possession alone would not have decided it, but the rest of the numbers point the same way.

Shots are a count, so a fairer measure is expected goals, or xG, which gives each chance a value based on how often chances of that kind tend to go in. Braga's chances added up to 1.42, against the 0.96 they average in away games. Nacional's came to 0.51, well under the 1.16 they usually reach at home. Braga had the better chances by this measure, even though Nacional had the goal.

Braga had 20 shots, but only two of them were on target, and nine were blocked before they reached the goalkeeper. Pau Victor had two of those efforts, one on target, and won four of his duels. Ricardo Horta created three chances from his passing. For Nacional, Renato Bellucci made two saves, and that was enough to keep the lead intact.

Nacional had conceded in each of their last six matches, so keeping a clean sheet broke a run that had lasted some time. They usually concede 2.3 goals at home, and this time they conceded none. Braga's chances, valued as above, were still fewer in quality than the 1.71 that Nacional normally face at home. The defence did more than its share of the work, even if the ball was mostly elsewhere.

For Braga, the absence of a goal stands out. They usually score 1.1 in away games, and they came away with none. Their shots were plentiful but rarely troubling, and the difference between the chances they made and the goals they scored is the main talking point for them to take from the night. Before this game, Nacional were 17th with four points from eight matches, and Braga were ninth with 11 from eight. Braga have won two of their last six away matches.

Player of the matchMiguel Baeza1 goal8.0

João Moutinho1 chance created7.0

Song Min-Kyu1 assist7.0

Matheus Dias1 shot on target6.9