Forsberg's late winner for Red Bulls on a third of the ball
New York Red Bulls2 – 0Inter Miami 
New York Red Bulls beat Inter Miami 2-0 at home, with the better chances despite having far less of the ball.
Two goals decided this one: an own goal in the seventh minute, and Emil Forsberg's finish in the 90th, with Cameron Harper providing the assist. The result belongs to New York Red Bulls, but the way they got there tells a more interesting story than a 2-0 scoreline suggests. Their share of the ball was the unusual part, and the chances they made despite it were the reason the win is not a fluke.
Red Bulls had only 33% of the ball at Sports Illustrated Stadium, well below the 50.8% they usually have at home. Inter Miami had 67%, above their usual 56.3% on the road. For a side used to having most of the ball on its own pitch, a third is a real drop, and it is the first thing that stands out. Possession alone, though, does not tell you who was in the better position to score.
Ball possession
That is where Red Bulls had the edge. They took 19 shots, against a usual 14.1, and their expected goals (xG, a rough measure of how likely each shot was to go in, based on where and how it was taken) came to 3.31, well above their average of 2.13. Inter Miami's xG was 0.84, far under their away average of 2.08, even though they took 12 shots, close to their ordinary 11.9. They shot about as often as usual, but from worse positions.
The goals followed the chances. Inter Miami had averaged 2.7 goals on the road and scored none here, a sharp fall for a side that usually finds the net away from home. Red Bulls averaged one goal a game at home and scored twice. The league as a whole averages 3.5 goals per match, so this game finished well under that mark, and it was the quality of shots rather than the number of goals that separated the sides.
Red Bulls put six of their 19 shots on target, while Inter Miami managed two from 12. That gap is the clearest sign of where the chances sat. Inter's goalkeeper, D. St. Clair, made five saves, far more work than anyone else in the match, and it was his busy evening that kept the margin where it was for most of the game. Red Bulls' own goalkeeper, E. Horvath, had a quieter night.
Harper's assist for Forsberg closed the scoring, and Forsberg, rated 7.7 for the evening, was the player who took the winning chance. Reguilón and R. De Paul were the most involved Inter Miami players in attack, though neither could turn their work into a goal. The sides ended with the same number of yellow cards, one each, so discipline did not change the picture.
Inter Miami leave with a 2-0 defeat and without the away scoring they usually provide, a 2.7 goal average that was not met here. Red Bulls keep the chances they created as the most useful part of the evening, not the scoreline alone.
E. Forsberg1 goal
T. Parker4 duels won
D. Nealis1 chance created
D. St. Clair5 saves