Istra won with fewer chances than they usually create

Istra 1961 beat NK Slaven Belupo away from home, scoring late from chances worth less than their usual.

Istra 1961 left Gradski Stadion with three points despite creating less than they usually do. Slaven Belupo had 52% of the ball, against their usual 44.1%, and took 13 shots, more than their usual 10.8. The match was settled late, though, by Mohamed Nasraoui in the 71st minute and Isaac Aguiar Tomich in the 90th.

To judge a chance, football people use expected goals, a rough score for how often shots of that quality tend to go in. A tap-in from a few yards scores high, a long effort from distance scores low. Slaven's chances added up to 0.64 expected goals, against their usual 1.11. Ten of their efforts came from inside the box, but they were still making worse chances than normal, and that is why the volume of shooting did not translate into a result.

Istra had 48% of the ball, which is above their usual 44.6%, so they had more possession than normal as well. Their shots fell to seven, against their usual 11.5, and their chances came to 0.82 expected goals, against a usual 1.28. Four of those seven efforts were on target, and that accuracy turned into goals. Nasraoui scored the first and was rated 8.1, the highest figure among the players recorded for either side.

Emil Frederiksen was credited with the assist for that first goal, and the second arrived late enough that Slaven had little time to answer it. Discipline was close to even. Each side received two yellow cards, neither sent a player off, and Istra committed 17 fouls to Slaven's 14. Nothing in the card count explains the result, so the difference lies in where the chances were taken and how efficiently Istra used theirs.

Slaven's home form had already been uneven before this game, including a 5-1 defeat at home that was far from the norm for them. This time they had the bigger share of the ball and more shots, but the cleaner chances belonged to Istra. Two goals is also below the league's usual 3.1 per match, which tells us the afternoon was tighter than the scoreline in isolation might suggest.

Istra are now a point off nothing in particular, but they sit sixth in the table, with Slaven Belupo seventh. Both clubs have thirteen points, so the gap between them is one place and nothing more.

Player of the matchM. Nasraoui1 goal8.1

F. Kolić4 saves7.5

Isaac1 goal7.4

L. Crepulja2 chances created7.2