NK Slaven Belupo won at NK Varazdin with ten men

NK Slaven Belupo scored twice from fewer and weaker chances than usual, then held on to win 1-2 with ten men after Ilija Nestorovski was sent off.

Ilija Nestorovski set up both of NK Slaven Belupo's goals, and then he was sent off at 79 minutes, leaving his side to finish the game with ten men. They did, and they took the points at NK Varazdin. On the bare figures for possession and shots, though, the home side had more of the match, so the result needs a closer look at how the chances came.

NK Varazdin had 54% of the ball, well above their usual 46.3% at home, and they took 13 shots, close to the 12.5 they average. Their expected goals figure, a rough measure of how good the chances were where a value of one is a fair chance, was 1.36, which sits near their home average of 1.25. Iuri Tavares gave them the lead in the sixth minute, but they scored only once, below their home average of 1.4, and they conceded two, far more than the 0.8 they usually let in at home.

NK Slaven Belupo had 46% of the ball, a little above their away average of 43.9. Their shot count was eight, against 11.1 usually, and their expected goals of 0.62 was well below the 1.18 they average away from home. In other words, they created fewer chances, and worse ones, than they normally do. They still scored twice, more than their away average of 1.3, which is why the afternoon belonged to them on the scoreboard even though the chances told a different story.

Josip Mitrović levelled at 66 minutes, with Nestorovski once again providing the final pass, and Lovro Banovec put Belupo ahead four minutes later. A goal from Luka Mamić for NK Varazdin was ruled out at 72 after a video review, which left the visitors in front. Then, at 79, Nestorovski was shown a red card, and the nine minutes between Banovec's goal and his dismissal were the difference between a drawn game and a narrow win in which one side had to defend with a man fewer.

Three goals in all is slightly under the division's average of 3.1 per match, and Belupo's eight shots are well under the 12.5 that a side averages across the division. In those terms the match was ordinary, and nothing about its volume of goals or shooting sets it apart. What makes it stand out is how the goals came, from chances that were, on the numbers, weaker than the ones Belupo usually get on the road.

Belupo's away form makes the late turn more striking. They have won three of their ten away games and lost six, and they have conceded 22 goals on the road this season. Against NK Varazdin they let in only one, from Tavares's early strike, and that is the lowest figure in the two sides' recent matches that the numbers allow us to see.

At home this season NK Varazdin have five wins, three draws and two defeats from ten games, which gives them 18 points. Belupo's away record stands at three wins, one draw and six defeats, with 22 goals conceded.

Player of the matchJ. Mitrović1 goal7.3

Iuri Tavares1 goal7.2

M. Mladenovski1 chance created7.1

L. Banovec1 goal7.1