Norwich come back from two down to beat Watford 3-2

Watford were two up inside half an hour at Carrow Road, but Norwich turned the match round in the second half.

Watford were two goals up at Carrow Road before half an hour had gone, and by the 71st minute Norwich were ahead. Norwich hit back with a run of goals between the 53rd and 71st minutes to turn the match around. Coming back from two goals down to win is the story here, and every figure below has to be read through it.

Myron Boadu had the first half to himself. He scored in the tenth minute and again in the 27th, and both of his shots on target went in. Iker Bravo set up the first and Matthew Pollock the second, and Boadu's rating of 8.4 reflects a striker who did the most damage before the break. He was replaced in the 75th minute, by which point the game had already changed shape.

Expected goals, or xG, is a way of judging chances by how often shots of that kind go in, so a higher total means better opportunities. Norwich had 59% of the ball against their home average of 50.6%, and they took 14 shots to Watford's 8. Their chances added up to an xG of 1.08, below the 1.25 they average at home, so the comeback came from volume rather than from better opportunities.

Watford had 41% of the ball, below their away average of 46.6%, and took fewer shots than the 11.6 they usually manage on the road. Their xG of 1 sat close to the 0.97 they average away, so the chances were ordinary even though there were fewer of them. Their two goals were more than the 0.9 they usually score on the road, which means their finishing ran ahead of the chances they made.

Norwich's goals came from Benjamin Chrisene, Anthony Musaba and Paris Maghoma, and Mathias Kvistgaarden was involved in two of them. Matthew Pollock was booked before the break and Jose Cordoba later in the second half, and neither side had a player sent off. Neither side lost a man, so the turnaround was made with eleven players on each side.

Twelve of Norwich's shots came from inside the box, against four for Watford, and that is where most goals are scored. Norwich conceded two, close to the 1.9 they average at home, but Watford's chances were worth less than the 1.71 Norwich usually give up at home. The result leaves Norwich with a win that the chances alone would not have predicted.

Norwich's three goals were more than their home average of 1.8. Five goals in the match sits above the league average of 2.9 per game.

Player of the matchM. Boadu2 goals8.4

P. Maghoma1 goal7.8

A. Musaba1 goal7.2

B. Chrisene1 goal7.2