Portland's chances ran well above normal; Bassett settled it late

Portland beat Charlotte 3-2 at Providence Park, creating far more than usual while Charlotte's chances fell well short of theirs.

Cole Bassett's goal in the 90th minute gave Portland Timbers a 3-2 win over Charlotte at Providence Park, but the chances behind the scoreline tell the more interesting story. Charlotte were ahead inside three minutes through Pep Biel, and Portland replied with two goals from Ariel Lassiter before half time. Idan Toklomati Jorno levelled for the visitors at 69 minutes, which left the match open until Bassett's finish with the clock nearly up.

Portland's chances are what stands out. Expected goals is a way of measuring how good a chance was, based on where the shot came from and how it was struck, and Portland finished on 2.67 across the match. That is well above their usual figure at home, which sits at 1.26, and above the league average of 1.47 for a side. They also took 26 shots, around twice their home norm of 12.9, and 20 of those came from inside the penalty area.

Charlotte had less of the ball than they normally do, 44 per cent against an away average of 47 per cent. Their chances were thinner too: 0.9 expected goals is noticeably short of the 1.51 they usually create on the road, and six shots is well below their usual output. Much of Portland's threat ended with Kahlina in the Charlotte goal, who made nine saves and kept the score within reach for the visitors.

Lassiter scored twice, and Eric Izoita assisted both goals. Izoita also made four key passes, which are the passes that lead directly to a shot, and his rating of 8.3 reflects a player who was involved in most of Portland's best moves. Izoita had already been booked at 17 minutes, so the home side was never fully comfortable with him on the pitch, even as he created chances.

Charlotte's goals came in the match's opening three minutes and again in the 69th, and their total of two sits close to their usual away return of 1.7, so their finishing was not out of the ordinary. Biel's opener came from a pass by Ashley Westwood, and Toklomati Jorno's equaliser was set up by Luca De La Torre. Charlotte's problem was not the goals they scored but how few chances they managed to create, which is why the late defeat hurt more than the scoreline suggests.

Bassett's winner came from a pass by Ian Smith, and it followed a spell in which Portland had kept sending the ball into dangerous areas without finding a finish. The home side's three goals sit well above their usual 1.6 per game, while their two conceded were close to their usual 1.9. Portland were not running away with the match, but they were making more of their chances than they usually do, and that finally paid off.

Portland, 11th in the table with 34 points from 30 matches, had gone six games without a win before this one. The victory ends that run, and Bassett's late goal is the moment that decided it.

Player of the matchA. Lassiter2 goals9.2

Eric Izoita2 assists8.3

K. Kahlina9 saves7.8

C. Bassett1 goal7.7