Waddingham's late winner gave Portsmouth a win on thinner chances

Portsmouth beat Millwall 2-1 at Fratton Park, coming back from Millwall's early goal to win with fewer chances than usual.

Jenson Metcalfe put Millwall ahead in the sixth minute, and for a while that looked like the goal that would matter. Lyndon Dykes then put the ball into his own net at 16, which counts for Portsmouth and brought the sides level. The winner came from Thomas Waddingham at 82, and Portsmouth took the three points at home having made fewer chances than they usually do.

Portsmouth's expected goals, a figure that gives each shot a value based on how often shots like it go in, came to 0.91 for the match. That is well short of the 1.25 they average in home games. They took seven shots and only two were on target, against the 13.9 they usually take, so the attacking side of their afternoon was quieter than normal. Their two goals were, however, above the 1.4 they usually score at home, which tells us the finishing was sharper than the openings they created.

Millwall had more of the ball than usual, 52 per cent against the 48.6 they average away from home, but possession did not turn into many openings. Their expected goals of 0.74 is well under the 1.78 they usually create on their travels, and their ten shots fell short of the 14.3 they normally take. They completed 277 of their 362 passes, a tidy total, yet they were caught offside six times, which points to an attack that kept running into the Portsmouth line.

Portsmouth's defence held Millwall to fewer chances than they usually concede at home. Millwall's 0.74 sits below the 1.48 that Portsmouth normally allow in front of their own supporters, and Portsmouth conceded one goal against the 1.2 they average. Their goalkeeper had no saves to make, while Millwall's made one. Each side picked up two yellow cards and twelve fouls, so the match was not short of contact, even if it was short of clear chances.

Metcalfe's goal was Millwall's only one of the afternoon, and he stayed on until the 87th minute, a performance that earned an 8.2 from the ratings. Waddingham's winner was his only shot of the match, which makes it a rare example of a striker turning one chance into the result. The pair of them tell the story of the day: one side producing fewer opportunities, but taking a larger share of the ones it had.

Portsmouth sit 13th in the table and Millwall 12th, both on 15 points from 11 games. Neither side has built a run of results that would separate them from the middle of the division in this stretch. The gap between them on the table is small, just as it was before kick-off.

Millwall have scored as many goals as they have conceded this season, 18 apiece.

Player of the matchJenson Metcalfe1 goal8.2

T. Waddingham1 goal7.8

T. Shade1 shot on target6.8

R. Poole10 duels won6.6