Preston's chance quality tripled on 29% of the ball

Preston and West Brom drew 1-1 at Deepdale, with Andrew Hughes and Aune Heggebø scoring four minutes apart late on.

Preston had 29% of the ball at Deepdale and still created far more than they usually do. Their expected goals, a score that adds up how likely each shot was to go in, reached 1.73. Across their last ten home matches they averaged 0.58, so this was roughly three times their normal level. Most of their 18 shots came from inside the box, which is where the dangerous ones tend to come from.

West Brom had 71% of the ball, well above the 53.1% they average on the road, and took 20 shots against a usual 10.8. Their chances were slightly better too, with 1.87 expected goals, but that sits close to what they normally create away from home. Put simply, they got more shots rather than much better ones, and the gap in chance quality between the two sides was small. Possession was clearly theirs, but the chances were not.

Preston took the lead at 78 minutes through Andrew Hughes, with Leo Leroy credited with the assist. Hughes's one shot was the one that counted, and it earned him a rating of 8.5, the sort of mark that usually goes to the player who decides a game. Four minutes later Aune Heggebø levelled for West Brom, and the late swing meant neither side walked away with the full three points.

Preston's finishing was efficient in a narrow sense, because only a handful of their shots reached the target and one of them went in. Their goalkeeper still had to make five saves, which shows how much pressure the visitors put on the home defence. West Brom's keeper made three saves in the same stretch of play. The chances were shared more evenly than the possession, and that is why the scoreline looks tighter than the ball count suggests.

C. Styles, rated 7.4, supplied three key passes, the kind of final ball that sets up a shot for a team-mate. It was one of the more productive pieces of West Brom's attacking play, even though the goal came from elsewhere. Hughes also won 13 duels, adding a physical side to his afternoon that matched the finish. Both sides had reasons to feel the match offered something, though only one of them could point to a goal in the closing stages.

West Brom's away record reads six wins, two draws and three defeats from eleven matches, which leaves them fifth on the road. At home, Preston have won once and conceded 24 goals this season.

Player of the matchA. Hughes1 goal8.5

A. Heggebø1 goal8.0

C. Styles3 chances created7.4

J. Morgan3 chances created7.2