Rayo's three goals came from fewer chances than usual

Rayo Vallecano beat Celta Vigo 3-0 while creating slightly less than they normally do, and finishing did the rest.

Rayo Vallecano beat Celta Vigo 3-0 at Estadio de Vallecas without creating more than they usually do. Their expected goals, a rough measure of how likely a shot is to go in based on where and how it was taken, came to 1.07. Over their last ten home matches they average 1.22, so the chances were a little below normal, and yet the goals came.

Finishing made the difference. Jorge de Frutos scored in the 36th minute and again in the 55th, with Andrei Rațiu setting up the second, and Unai López added a third in the 73rd. Rayo usually score 1.2 goals in a home match, so three is a long way above their normal output from a set of chances that was, if anything, slightly below par.

Celta's story runs the other way. Their expected goals reached 0.91 on their travels, which is well above the 0.57 they usually manage away from home, so their chances were better than they are used to. They took nine shots, close to the 9.3 they average on the road, which means the volume was ordinary and the quality was higher. None of that turned into a goal, and the only thing missing was the finish.

Possession did not settle it either. Rayo had 53% of the ball, a touch above their 51.6% average at home, while Celta had 47% against a usual 49.3% away. Both sides were close to their normal share, so the ball tells us little beyond this being an ordinary spread of possession between two teams that were not dominant.

Rațiu deserves a mention beyond his assist. He won six of his individual duels, the most of anyone on the pitch, and his delivery into the box started the move that gave Rayo their second. De Frutos's two goals were the clearest contribution to the scoreline, but the build-up around him was more active than the chance count suggests.

Both sides made their changes around the hour mark, and Celta's later substitutions in the 75th minute did not shift the shape of the game. Rayo's third goal came from a long period in which the match had already been decided by the first two, so the late strike mattered for the margin but not for the outcome.

Celta's six most recent away results were three wins, two draws and a defeat, while Rayo's home form has them 17th in the table. Celta sit ninth on the road this season, with twelve points from their away matches.

Player of the matchJorge de Frutos2 goals9.1

Unai López1 goal8.2

A. Rațiu1 assist7.5

F. Lejeune4 duels won7.4