Two penalties sent Elche past Rayo on fewer shots, better chances

Rayo Vallecano lost 0-3 to Elche after holding more of the ball and taking more shots, but Elche's chances were far better.

Two penalties decided this match, and a third went begging for Rayo Vallecano. Federico Redondo Solari gave Elche the lead from the spot in the 23rd minute. After a VAR review confirmed another penalty for them in the 33rd, Fernando Niño Rodríguez scored from the spot in the 36th. Pathé Ciss had the chance to pull one back for Rayo in the 39th minute, and he missed.

Rayo had more of the ball and more of the shooting. They had 57% of possession, against a usual 51%, and took 18 shots where they normally take 12.4. Their expected goals, a figure that adds up how likely each shot was to go in, came to 1.58, above their usual 1.15.

Elche had less of the ball, 43% against their usual 50.9%, and fewer shots, 16, but nine of those were on target. Their chances were far better. Their expected goals of 2.63 is more than three times the 0.82 they normally create on the road. Both sides had eight shots from inside the box, so the difference lay in the quality of the chances rather than their number.

Rayo usually score 1.3 goals at home and this time scored none. They also conceded more than their usual 1.9, and the chances Elche made were worth more than the 1.53 expected goals Rayo normally allow. Those are the figures that matter most here, because they show where the match turned.

The third goal came in the 68th minute, when Germán Valera scored with Facundo Buonanotte credited with the assist. Valera was rated 7.9, as was M. Dituro, whose four saves kept Elche's lead safe in the closing stages. Rayo's E. Audero made six saves in his own goal, and Unai López won five duels, more than any other Rayo player listed.

Three goals is close to the league average of 3.1 per match, so the total was ordinary in itself. What made it unusual was who scored. Elche scored all of their goals when they usually manage 1.2 away from home, and Rayo scored none. Before this, Elche had won only one of their last six away matches.

Player of the matchM. Dituro4 saves7.9

Germán Valera1 goal7.9

R. Revivo1 chance created7.7

Buba Sangaré6 duels won7.6