Leipzig scored four from fewer, weaker chances than usual

RB Leipzig beat SV Elversberg 4-0 at home, with their chances falling short of their normal level and the goals still coming.

Expected goals, or xG, is a rough tally of how good a side's chances were, where a tap-in counts for close to one and a long-range shot for very little. RB Leipzig's total in this match was 1.37, well below the 1.85 they usually create at home. Yet they finished with four goals, so the story is not that they had more of the play but that they turned thinner chances into a heavy win.

The goals arrived in a steady sequence. Tidiam Gomis scored two minutes after the restart, Rômulo struck in the 66th minute, Christoph Baumgartner added one in the 84th, and Rômulo scored again in the 90th minute to complete the rout. Late goals like that, arriving when the game is already settled, tend to make a scoreline look heavier than the contest was.

Possession was a little different from usual rather than a sharp departure. Leipzig had 56% of the ball, against a home average of 52.5%, while Elversberg had 44%, almost exactly their away average of 44.3%. Leipzig simply kept the ball slightly more often than they normally do, and Elversberg kept it about as often as they always do.

The real change was in Elversberg's attacking output. They managed five shots, against an away average of 11.2, and their expected goals came to 0.68 where they usually reach 1.48. Those are the figures of a side that rarely got into the box with a clear view of goal, and it is a notable fall for a team that normally creates a fair amount on the road.

Antonio Nusa was involved in three of the goals in some form, with two assists and three key passes, the kind of work that sets up the chance rather than taking it. Rômulo's two strikes were the clearest individual return. For Elversberg, L. Petkov was the busiest figure in the duels, winning nine of them, which told a story of a side that fought for the ball without finding a way to keep it.

Leipzig's recent form is a mixed picture. In their last six matches they have three wins and three defeats, and two of those defeats were heavy, a 1-4 and a 1-6, both away from home. Elversberg's last six include three wins, a draw and two losses, with their away results split more evenly than their home ones. Against that background, a clean sheet is an unusual result for Leipzig at home, who typically concede two.

Player of the matchA. Nusa2 assists8.4

Rômulo1 goal8.1

M. Estève1 chance created8.0

T. Gomis1 goal7.9