Remo beat Botafogo with fewer chances and less of the ball

Remo beat Botafogo at the Estádio Evandro Almeida by scoring from fewer chances than usual, while Botafogo kept most of the ball and still went home beaten.

Jandir Breno Souza Silva gave Remo the lead in the eighth minute, and the rest of the match ran in a direction that early goal did not suggest. Botafogo spent most of the night with the ball, and the figures show just how much. Remo won anyway, which is the sort of result that rewards a closer look at what each side actually did.

Possession is simply the share of time a side keeps the ball. Botafogo had 65% of it, well above the 49.1% they average in away matches this season, yet they created fewer chances than usual. Expected goals, or xG, adds up how likely each shot was to go in, based on where and how it was taken. Botafogo's total of 0.94 sits below their away average of 1.38, and their 13 shots fell short of the 17.1 they usually fire off on the road.

Remo were the mirror image of that picture. They had 35% of the ball against a home average of 46.5%, and they managed 11 shots where they usually take 13.9. Their chances, at 0.66 xG, were also below what they normally create at home. Less of the game and less of the chance-making, and yet they came away with the points. That gap between chances and goals is what makes the result worth talking about.

Leonel Picco doubled the lead in the 54th minute and finished the match with the highest rating of anyone on the pitch, a 7.9. Remo's two goals were more than their chances alone would have predicted, and Picco's was the one that made the afternoon feel safe. Botafogo kept going, and Edenilson pulled one back in the 83rd minute, assisted by Marçal. That goal was a fair return for their side, given that their away average is 0.6 goals per match, and it came too late to change the outcome.

At the back, Remo conceded just one goal, against a home average of 1.5 goals conceded. That is a useful number for a side that spent so much of the game without the ball. Botafogo's defence had its own issues, with Remo's chances at the other end coming from a side that had less of the play. The shots and the ball told the same story: one side did a lot of the holding, and the other did a lot of the scoring.

Remo are 19th in the table with 26 points from 32 matches. Botafogo are 11th with 39 points from the same number of games. Remo have now beaten a side that had far more of the ball, a result that does not fit neatly into the league standings but sits comfortably with what the scoreboard showed.

Edenilson's goal in the 83rd minute was the only change to the score after Picco's strike in the 54th.

Player of the matchL. Picco1 goal7.9

Jája Silva1 goal7.8

Edenílson1 goal7.4

Marcelinho1 chance created7.1