Southampton's finishing, not their chances, sank QPR

Southampton beat QPR at St. Mary's Stadium by scoring more than their chances suggested, while QPR created less than usual and could not keep them out.

Southampton's goals came from better finishing than their chances warranted, and that is the story of this match. Expected goals, a figure that gives every shot a value between zero and one based on how often such chances usually go in, reached only 1.12 for the home side. Their usual figure at St. Mary's is 1.51, so they created a little less than normal and still scored well beyond what those chances suggested.

Possession was close to ordinary on both sides. Southampton had 54% of the ball against a home average of 55%, while QPR had 46% against an away average of 48.2%. Neither share says much on its own, which is why the rest of the picture matters more.

The number of attempts shows Southampton had more shooting chances than usual. They took 18 shots, above their usual 13.7 at home, and 11 of them came from inside the box, where goals are most likely to come from. QPR had 12 attempts, slightly under their away average of 12.8, but only two of those were on target.

Kuryu Matsuki opened the scoring in the 11th minute, and Cameron Bragg doubled the lead just after the hour, with Ryan Manning providing the assist. Keven Schlotterbeck added a third in the 66th minute, and Manning had a hand in that one too, which made him the most influential passer on the afternoon. Richard Kone pulled one back for QPR two minutes later, after a pass from Karamoko Dembélé. Southampton's usual home average is 2.1 goals, so a fourth goal before the end left them well clear of their normal figure.

QPR's trouble came at both ends. Their expected goals of 0.78 sat well below their away average of 1.61, so they had fewer good chances than usual. They also conceded four goals, when their away average for goals against is just one, and that gap is the figure that stands out most from their season so far.

Discipline pointed the same way. QPR gave away sixteen fouls to Southampton's seven and picked up three yellow cards, from Jonathan Varane, Kealey Adamson and Jimmy Dunne, all in the second half. Southampton were not booked at all. The match produced five goals in total, against a league average of 2.9 per game, so it was livelier than most.

After twelve matches each, Southampton sit eighth in the table and QPR ninth, both on 20 points.

Player of the matchCameron Bragg1 goal8.2

K. Schlotterbeck1 goal8.2

R. Manning2 assists8.0

R. Kone1 goal7.8