Portland hold on at St. Louis after Miller's stoppage-time red

Portland won 3-2 at St. Louis City, but a late sending off and a chance count that cut against the scoreline make the result more interesting than it looks.

Kamal Miller was sent off for Portland Timbers in stoppage time, and Portland still won. Sang-bin Jung had scored for St. Louis City in the same moment to bring the home side within a single goal, so the Timbers finished a man short with only one goal in hand. That changes how almost everything else here should be read, because the visitors were not simply defending a lead, they were defending it with ten men.

The ball is where St. Louis City looked most like themselves. They had 61% of possession, well above their usual 54.9%, which is a clear step up for a side that normally has less of it at home. Portland had 39%, against their usual 51.3%, so the visitors spent a long stretch of the match without it.

Shots tell a different story. St. Louis City had 13, a little above their usual 11.1, but Portland had 12 against their usual 13.9. A more useful measure is expected goals, which gives each shot a value based on how likely it was to go in from that position. City's total came to 1.71, up from their usual 1.18, while Portland's 0.89 sat well below their usual 1.39 and under the league average of 1.51.

Portland scored three anyway, which is more than their away average of 1.7 and more than their chances would have suggested. Kristoffer Velde scored twice, with a rating of 9.1 for the match, and David Da Costa scored once and set up the second, with six key passes, the most of anyone on the pitch. Velde was taken off in the 83rd minute, so the pair did most of the damage before the home side had time to respond.

St. Louis City's chances were the more restrained part of their evening. Their defence gave away fewer good chances than usual, with Portland's 0.89 set against a home average of 1.48, yet they still conceded three goals, well above their usual 1.6. Carlo Holse played the full match and provided the assist for Daniel Edelman's goal, but the home side's problem was getting into the box with enough quality to turn their shots into goals.

Five goals is also above the league average of 3.4 per match, so this was a more open game than most. St. Louis City sit third in the table with 51 points from 31 matches, while Portland are eleventh on 37 points from the same number of games. Both sides now have a clear picture of what they produced, and the numbers say Portland's three goals came from fewer chances than the home side's shots.

Player of the matchK. Velde2 goals9.1

David Pereira da Costa1 goal · 1 assist9.0

C. Holse1 assist7.6

Jeong Sang-Bin1 goal7.4