Sargent's 86th-minute winner sends Toronto past DC with fewer shots

Toronto FC beat DC United 2-1 at BMO Field, having had much more of the ball and better chances, but fewer shots than usual.

Josh Sargent settled it in the 86th minute, after Jonathan Osorio had levelled a game that DC United had led since Andre Dozzell scored in the 29th. Toronto won 2-1, and the match reads differently once you see how they got there. They did it with less shooting than usual, and with better chances when they did shoot.

Toronto had 62% of the ball, against a home average of 42.8% this season. Possession is simply the share of time a side spends with the ball, and 62% is a long way from what Toronto normally manage at BMO Field. DC had 38%, almost exactly their away average of 38.8%, so the shift came from Toronto's side rather than from DC playing unusually passively.

Yet Toronto did not shoot more often. Both sides had nine shots, and Toronto's home average is 13.6, so they took fewer than they usually do. Expected goals, or xG, scores each chance by how likely it was to go in, so a close-range shot counts for far more than a long one. Toronto's total came to 1.55, above their home average of 1.36, which means the shots they took were the better ones.

Toronto also gave away less than they usually do. DC's expected goals came to 1.11, well below their away average of 1.47, while Toronto's home average for chances conceded is 1.61. Toronto's goalkeeper, L. Gavran, made the only save of the match, and DC made none. The game was not a one-sided affair in the sense of possession alone, but it was tilted by the quality of what each side created.

Sargent was the most influential figure on the pitch. He took four shots, set up Osorio's equaliser and then scored the winner himself, earning a rating of 9, the highest in the match. Dozzell's goal was DC's only one, and his assist from Silvan Hefti was the kind of move that gave DC the lead early. DC's total of goals and chances both sat close to what they usually produce away from home.

The match had three goals in all, a little under the league average of 3.3 per game, so there was nothing unusual about the scoring rate. What stands out is the gap between how much of the ball Toronto had and how few shots they took, combined with a chance quality that was above their usual level. Toronto's last six matches have brought two wins, and both of their defeats came in the two games immediately before this one.

Player of the matchJ. Sargent1 goal · 1 assist9.0

J. Osorio1 goal8.1

A. Dozzell1 goal7.9

L. Gavran1 save7.2