Vitória's chances ran above their usual level in a five-goal win

Vitória SC beat Maritimo 5-0 with Arnel Jakupović scoring twice, and the hosts got into better positions than they usually manage at home.

Expected goals is a rough measure of how likely each shot was to become a goal, based on where it was taken and how it was struck. Vitória SC's total came to 1.74, against the 1.39 they usually reach at home, so the hosts were not only finishing well, they were also getting into better positions. Arnel Jakupović was the main beneficiary, and he is the first name to take from the night.

The opening goal came in the 38th minute from Jakupović, and it stood alone until the 48th, when a goal was recorded as an own goal. Oumar Camara made it three in the 60th minute, Jakupović added his second in the 76th, and Yeimar Mosquera closed the scoring in the 90th. No one was sent off, so the match was played eleven against eleven throughout, which makes the chance figures easier to trust.

Vitória had 57% of the ball, above the 53.6% they usually keep at home, while Maritimo's 43% sat close to their usual 44.8% away. That is a modest shift, and possession was not the reason for the score. Vitória took 16 shots, near their usual 16.5, but the league average is 11.6 per side, so the volume was high. Ten of those shots came from inside the box, which is where the better chances are usually taken.

Maritimo had 10 shots, close to the 8.9 they usually take away, but only two were on target. Their chances added up to 0.54, well below the 0.81 they average on their travels. They also conceded more than the 1.09 they usually allow away from home, so the problem was not a lack of activity but a lack of good openings at one end and a leaky defence at the other.

Jakupović had five shots, three of them on target, scored twice and was rated 8.6, the strongest individual mark on the night. Samu had five key passes, the final balls that lead to shots, and an assist, which says a good deal about how the chances were built. He was rated 7.7 for his part in it, and his creativity was a large reason the hosts looked so sharp in the final third.

The last word belongs to the 90th minute, when Mosquera made it five with Alan de Souza Guimarães providing the pass. It was the fifth goal Vitória had scored in a match where they had created more than their usual share of chances, and it sealed a result their numbers had been pointing towards since the first half.

Player of the matchA. Jakupovic2 goals8.6

O. Camara1 goal8.2

Y. Mosquera1 goal7.8

Samu1 assist7.7