Marinho's late red card left Vitoria a man short at the finish
Vitoria had more of the ball and better chances than usual, but a late sending off meant they finished their draw with Atletico Paranaense with ten men.
Marinho was sent off in the 90th minute, and that is the first thing to know about Vitoria's draw with Atletico Paranaense. Vitoria saw out the closing moments with ten men, so the point was held by a side a player short. Every number below should be read with that in mind, because it changes what the game looked like at the end.
Vitoria had 60 per cent of the ball. Over their eleven home matches this season they have averaged 40.4 per cent, so this is a clear departure from their usual share. Atletico Paranaense were left with the rest, well short of their 49.9 per cent average away from home. Having more of the ball does not decide a match on its own, so what Vitoria did with it matters more.
Ball possession
Expected goals, or xG, is a way of scoring each chance by how likely it was to become a goal, based on where and how it was struck. Vitoria created 1.6 in this match, well above the 0.72 they usually manage at home, which suggests their possession turned into real openings. Atletico Paranaense created 0.58, below the 1.0 they average away. Both sides had ten shots, fewer than the 15.1 a typical side takes in this league, so the chances were few but better in Vitoria's hands.
Renato Kayzer scored for Vitoria in the 29th minute, finishing a move that Emanuel Brítez had set up, and his display earned an 8 rating. Gilberto's goal for Atletico Paranaense was confirmed after a VAR check in the 25th minute. Vitoria scored once, close to the 1.1 they usually manage at home. Atletico Paranaense also scored once, a below-normal return against the 1.9 they average away. The league as a whole averages 2.8 goals a match, and this game had fewer than that.
Vitoria conceded only one goal, below the 1.6 they usually concede at home, and the chances they allowed were also held down compared with the 1.7 they usually face. Atletico Paranaense picked up four yellow cards to Vitoria's two, but the only dismissal came from Vitoria's side. That is why the closing stages matter so much: the same defensive work that kept the score level became harder to sustain once the sending off came.
Vitoria remain 13th, with 37 points from 31 games, while Atletico Paranaense sit fourth on 53.
Renato Kayzer
Mateusinho
E. Brítez
L. Esquivel
1 goal
7 duels won