Bremen's clean sheet came from the back, not the attack

Werder Bremen beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 at the Weser-Stadion with less of the ball and fewer chances than usual, while Hoffenheim, who had more possession, conceded more than their away average.

Werder Bremen had 41% of the ball at the Weser-Stadion, well below the 46.4% they average at home over seven matches. Yet they came away with the win, and the reason lies in the quality of their chances rather than their share of the play. Expected goals, or xG, scores each shot by how likely it was to go in, so a total of 1 is roughly the worth of one certain goal. Bremen's chances added up to 1.23, short of the 1.71 they usually create at home.

Hoffenheim had more of the ball than they usually do away from home, 59% against an average of 55%, and completed 431 of their 520 passes. Possession did not turn into a threat on goal, though. They managed 16 shots, below their away average of 17.9, and their own chances were worth less than their usual output. Ball retention and goal threat are not the same thing, and this match shows the gap.

Werder Bremen's breakthrough came in the 57th minute, when Niclas Füllkrug scored with Karl Hein providing the assist. Eren Dinkci added the second in the 82nd minute, set up by Marco Grüll. The league as a whole averages 3.6 goals per match, and this one finished with two, so it was a quiet afternoon by the standards of the division's scoring. Both goals came after Hoffenheim had made their substitutions, and the second arrived when the visitors were pushing forward.

At the other end, Bremen's defence allowed less than usual. Hoffenheim's chances were worth less than the 1.77 that Bremen's home defence normally concedes, which is why the clean sheet is the real story of the day. Hoffenheim's own defence went the other way. The chances Bremen created were worth more than the 0.78 they usually give up when playing away, so the visitors were more exposed than they normally are.

Discipline was untidy for Bremen, who picked up three yellow cards. Marco Friedl was booked in the 60th minute, and Arthur Augusto de Matos Soares and Youri Regeer were both cautioned late on. No player was sent off, and Hoffenheim received no bookings at all. Bremen finished the match with their shape intact, which mattered when the other side was carrying more of the ball.

Bremen have now gone six matches without defeat, winning three and drawing three, and that run has moved them to seventh in the table. Hoffenheim have lost three of their last six and sit tenth, which is where they are after a difficult few weeks on the road. This was a result that left one side with the points and the other with a question about why their possession did not produce goals.

Hoffenheim remain tenth in the table after this defeat, with the points their away form has brought them so far.

Player of the matchN. Füllkrug1 goal8.2

M. Grüll1 assist7.7

E. Dinkçi1 goal7.7

K. Hein1 assist7.0