Wolves made the chances, Adam Armstrong took the only one

Wolves beat Watford 1-0 at Molineux, with Adam Armstrong's 35th-minute goal the only one of the afternoon.

Wolves had 24 shots at Molineux and won by a single goal, which tells you more about the finishing than the scoreline does. Adam Armstrong's strike in the 35th minute was the only goal of the afternoon. Wolves usually manage 14.9 shots at home, and a side in this league averages 13.1 per match, so the volume was well beyond the norm on both counts.

Volume alone can flatter a team, so the quality of those chances matters. Expected goals, a rough measure of chance quality where each shot is scored by how often such a chance goes in, came to 1.88. Wolves' home average is 1.34, so they created better chances than they usually do here. Sixteen of the shots came from inside the box, where the good chances tend to come from, and one goal from that pile is a thin return.

Watford had less of the ball than they usually keep on the road, 37% against an away average of 47.6. Wolves held 63%, above their own home average of 53.1. Watford managed four shots, against 12.4 on average when they travel, and their expected goals figure was 0.15 against a usual 1.13. Their goalkeeper made three saves, which was the most work the Watford end had to do all afternoon.

Wolves kept a clean sheet, which is better than they usually manage at home, where they concede 1.2 goals on average. Watford failed to score, a poor return for a side that usually finds the net 1.0 times when it plays away. Neither result was a surprise from the numbers alone, but both sides ended the afternoon where their chances had left them.

Armstrong's finish was the decisive moment, and he was given a rating of 8 for it, the highest mark on the Wolves side. He was substituted in the 78th minute. Jean-Ricner Bellegarde came on at 90 and won ten individual duels, while Watford's Hector Kyprianou won eight duels himself, a sign that the contest in midfield was closer than the possession figures suggest.

Discipline was ordinary. Neither side had a player sent off, Wolves picked up four yellow cards and Watford three. There was no early goal, no late winner and no penalty, so the result rests on a single strike from a side that created far more than it finished.

Wolves are seventh in the table on 18 points after eleven matches. Watford are 21st on 11 points, and their away record of three wins from eleven is the lowest of the two sides' splits.

Player of the matchA. Armstrong1 goal8.0

Y. Mosquera1 chance created7.5

J. Bellegarde4 chances created7.2

L. Krejčí4 duels won7.2