Leverkusen had the better chances; Köln's late goal came too late

Bayer Leverkusen won at 1. FC Köln with more of the ball and better chances, and a late Köln goal changed nothing.

Aleix García put Bayer Leverkusen ahead inside the first seven minutes, and the visitors spent much of the rest of the afternoon holding the better chances. Köln were not without their moments and pulled one back at the death, but the early goal set the shape of the game. The numbers say Leverkusen had the stronger case for the points, and the final scoreline reflects it.

Leverkusen had 61% of the ball, a touch above the 58.6% they average away from home, so that part was close to their usual share. Köln had 39%, well short of the 50.3% they keep at home, which is the clearer departure from normal. Expected goals, or xG, gives each shot a value based on how often shots like it go in, so a close-range chance counts for more than a long-range effort. Leverkusen's total was 1.75 against an away average of 1.51, and the league average per side is 1.59, so their chances were better than their own norm and a little above the division's typical side.

The shot counts tell a quieter story. Köln took 12, below the 15.1 they average at home, while Leverkusen managed 14, short of the 18.6 they usually take on the road. Neither side created as many openings as usual, so this was a game with fewer chances than either team is used to. Patrik Schick took the most shots for the visitors, four of them, three on target, and he doubled their lead at 85 minutes.

Köln's own chances came to 1.04, a little under their usual 1.11 at home, so the home attack was close to normal. The bigger difference was at the other end. They conceded two goals where they usually let in 1.5 at home, and Leverkusen's chances came in above the 1.0 that Köln normally allow in their own ground. Leverkusen, by contrast, usually give up 2.18 on the road, and this time they held Köln below that level.

Said El Mala's goal came in the 90th minute, set up by Malek El Mala, and it changed the tone of the closing moments without changing the result. El Mala had three shots, and his finish gave the home side a rating of 7.8 for the afternoon. For Leverkusen, Aleix García was the standout, rated 8.2 after scoring the opener and creating chances throughout.

Leverkusen's 13 points leave them sixth in the table, and their away record reads four wins, one draw and three defeats. Their form on the road has been more productive than their home results, which is a useful contrast with Köln. Köln sit 15th, and their home games have produced 12 goals conceded this season.

Player of the matchAleix García1 goal8.2

P. Schick1 goal8.0

M. Flekken5 saves8.0

S. El Mala1 goal7.8