Winkler's late winner sealed Anderlecht's better chances

Anderlecht beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-0 with less of the ball and fewer shots, but their chances were far better than their usual home returns.

Marten Winkler scored in the 90th minute, with Oliver Antman credited with the assist, and that goal gave Anderlecht a 2-0 win over Red Bull Salzburg at Lotto Park. A late winner is what the scoreboard shows, but the more interesting story is how good Anderlecht's chances were. Expected goals is a way of valuing each shot by how often shots from that spot tend to go in, and Anderlecht finished the night on 2.58.

That is more than double the 1.19 they usually produce at home, and it came from fewer attempts than normal. Anderlecht had 45% of the ball, where their home average is 53.2%, and they took 12 shots against a usual 14.5. Ten of those 12 came from inside the box, which is where the good chances usually come from, and seven were on target.

Salzburg had the larger share of the ball at 55%, but their attacking return was thin. They took eight shots, and their expected goals came to 0.59, about half their away average of 1.24. Christian Zawieschitzky was the busier goalkeeper, making five saves to Anderlecht's three, which shows where the danger was.

Across the league, a typical side creates 1.46 expected goals and the average match produces 2.9 goals. This one produced only two, well short of that, even though Anderlecht's chances were the better of the two sides'. Salzburg also had a goal by Leandro Morgalla cancelled in the 76th minute, which kept Anderlecht a goal ahead until Winkler's late finish.

Anderlecht's defence was tight. They conceded nothing, against a home average of 0.7 goals conceded, and Ludwig Augustinsson's goal in the 20th minute had given them the lead early. Their home average for expected goals conceded is 0.86, and Salzburg's chances came in below that. G. Biancone won seven duels, and D. Sikan made three chance-creating passes after coming on.

Discipline did not decide this one. Both sides collected yellow cards and nobody was sent off, so the result came down to who made more of the chances they had.

Anderlecht, who had lost two of their first three matches, now have six points from four. Red Bull Salzburg stay on four points from four, with one win, one draw and two defeats.

Player of the matchM. Winkler1 goal7.5

L. Augustinsson1 goal7.4

Christian Zawieschitzky5 saves7.3

D. Sikan3 chances created7.2