Arouca's single goal beat a Nacional attack well below its usual level
Arouca1 – 0Nacional 
Arouca beat Nacional 1-0 with a goal from Tiago Esgaio, and the numbers show the home side had the ball while the visitors' chances fell well short of their norm.
Tiago Esgaio scored the only goal at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca in the 64th minute, and Näis Djouahra was credited with the pass that set it up. That goal decided the afternoon and gave Arouca 17 points from nine games. Nacional left with nothing.
Arouca had 62% of the ball, well above the 51.3% they average at home this season. Nacional had 38%, under their usual 47%. Possession only tells us who held the ball, so the more useful question is what each side did with it. Arouca took 12 shots, a touch above their own average of 10.7 and just above the league's 11.9 per team, so the number of their shots was close to normal.
Ball possession
The quality of those chances is where the story sits. Expected goals, or xG, is a score from 0 to 1 for each shot based on how good a chance it was, and Arouca's total came to 0.74 against the 1.06 they average at home. That means Arouca had more of the ball and took more shots than usual, yet the chances were of poorer quality than they normally create.
Nacional's attack was the quieter side of the match. Their chances added up to 0.34 xG, far below the 1.05 they average away from home. They had five shots, under their own average of 10.3, and only one was on target. Renato Bellucci, rated 7.4 for the afternoon, made four saves, the heavier workload of the two goalkeepers.
Arouca's defensive numbers matched their attacking ones. They usually concede 1.52 xG at home, and Nacional's chances here came to less than a quarter of that. Nacional also conceded only one goal, which is below the two they have let in on average away from home. Arouca have lost only once in their last six games, and this win sits well with that form.
The cards did not shape the result. Each side received two yellow cards, with Matchoi Djaló and Danel Dongmo booked for Nacional and Orest Lebedenko and Pablo Gozálbez for Arouca, and nobody was sent off. Nacional made five substitutions, starting at the 70th minute, while Arouca made four, the first of them in the 59th.
Nacional sit 15th with 7 points, and two of their away matches this season have been won. Arouca have won five of their home games, and that record is a large part of why they are fifth.
N. Djouahra1 assist
Renato Bellucci4 saves
José Fontán1 duels won
Javi Sánchez4 duels won