Vasco came from behind to win 3-1 as Atletico lost a man

Vasco da Gama won 3-1 at Atletico Paranaense after going behind, with the home side reduced to ten men for the last stretch, and the numbers show Vasco won with fewer chances than usual.

Vasco da Gama were a goal down at Arena da Baixada and won 3-1, and the turn took only six minutes. Steven Mendoza's goal early in the second quarter looked like enough, until an own goal by F. Aguirre levelled the match, and then Bruno Duarte and Gabriel Pereira put Vasco in front. Atletico then lost K. Viveros to a red card late on, so they spent the final stretch with ten men. The sending off came after the goals, so it did not cause the turn, but it shaped how the last quarter of an hour was played.

Atletico had 51% of the ball, which is almost exactly their usual share at home. Vasco had 49%, below their away average of 55.3%, so possession alone does not explain the result. Possession tells us who kept the ball, not who threatened the goal. On that measure the picture is more useful.

Atletico took 11 shots, fewer than their home average of 14.2. Their expected goals, a figure that rates the quality of each chance on a scale where 1 means a chance that would usually be scored, came to 0.31, well under their usual 1.00. In plain terms, the chances they made were poor ones. Mendoza's goal was the exception, scored from a chance that was better than most of the others.

Vasco were the reverse. They took only 7 shots, against an away average of 17.6, and their expected goals of 0.71 sat below their usual 1.31. Yet they scored three times, and that is what makes this match unusual. Their away average is 1.4 goals, so three was more than double their normal return from a game in which they created less than usual. Five of their seven shots came from inside the box, which is a sign that the shots they took were close range rather than speculative. Gabriel Pereira's goal, scored with a rating of 7.6, was the kind of finish the chances had already promised.

The defensive figures are just as telling. Atletico conceded 0.71 expected goals to Vasco, against their usual 1.21, so Vasco created fewer good chances against them than they normally do. Yet Atletico conceded three goals, when their home average is 1.8. Their goalkeeper made only one save from the shots that came his way, and the three goals went in against what the chances suggested should have been a quieter afternoon. Cuiabano, who won eleven duels for Vasco, was one of the players who did the most work to keep the visitors pressing.

Atletico are fifth in the table, with 54 points from 33 games, and their home record is 15 wins from 33. Vasco are fourteenth, with 38 points from 32 games, and this win added to a run in which they have won three of their last six away matches. Vasco's away tally of 40 goals this season is a useful reminder that their attack has been more productive away than their position suggests.

Player of the matchSteven Mendoza1 goal7.7

Cuiabano1 chance created7.7

Gabriel Pereira1 goal7.6

Alan Saldivia4 duels won7.3