Başakşehir's chances ran well above normal as Samsunspor's cover broke

Başakşehir beat Samsunspor 5-2 at home, creating far better chances than their usual level while Samsunspor's away defence gave up more than it normally does.

Başakşehir's attack produced far more than it usually does at home. Their expected goals figure, a rough measure of how good the chances were based on where and how each shot was taken, came to 2.93. Their home average over nine matches is 1.25, so this was a sharp rise, and it is the most striking thing about the afternoon.

The first goal came from Shomurodov at 10 minutes, but Coulibaly answered for Samsunspor at 22 and Başakşehir were back in front three minutes later through Skov Olsen. Bayram put them further ahead before half time, and Ba added one at 75. Tavsan pulled a goal back for the visitors at 84, but Fayzullaev settled it at 90.

Başakşehir had the ball for 58% of the match, which is ball possession, meaning the share of time a side keeps control of it. That is well above their home average of 49.9%. Samsunspor were left with 42%, below the 54.1% they usually have away from home.

Başakşehir took 18 shots, and 10 of them came from inside the box, where the best chances tend to be taken. Samsunspor managed nine. Their expected goals of 1.04 was only a little above their away average of 0.88, so the visitors did not create much more than usual. What made the difference was finishing, as Samsunspor scored two goals against an away average of 0.9.

The defensive picture is the reverse of what you might expect. Samsunspor normally concede around 1.44 expected goals on their travels, and here they gave up the 2.93 mentioned earlier, which was far above that. Başakşehir, by contrast, normally allow 1.41 at home, and this time they conceded only 1.04 in chances terms. Their attack ran hot while their own defence was tighter than usual.

Form tells a similar story. Samsunspor have now lost six matches in a row away from home, and in nine away games they have one win, one draw and seven defeats, sitting 17th in the away table with 4 points. Başakşehir are 12th in the home table with 11 points, from three wins, two draws and four defeats in nine matches.

Başakşehir's home record has been more mixed than their goal tally suggests, with the side scoring 12 goals and conceding 14 in those nine matches. Samsunspor have conceded 21 times in their nine away games this season.

Player of the matchJakub Kałuziński2 assists7.9

Andreas Skov Olsen1 goal7.7

Ousseynou Ba1 goal7.6

Elayis Tavsan1 goal7.6