A missed penalty and an early red card shaped Birmingham's win

Birmingham beat Swansea 2-1 at St Andrew's, with a penalty miss and a sending off at the heart of a match that the chance figures tell in Birmingham's favour.

Ross Stewart had the chance to put Swansea ahead from the penalty spot in the twelfth minute, and he missed it. Fourteen minutes later Marko Stamenić was sent off, leaving Swansea to play with ten men for almost two thirds of the match. Every number below should be read with that in mind, because a side that loses a man early has to defend very differently from one with eleven.

Birmingham went ahead in the twenty-ninth minute when Jay Stansfield scored, with Max Bird providing the final pass. Swansea had the numerical advantage of nobody, so the goal came against a side already short and trying to hold its shape. Stansfield then struck again late on, in the eighty-seventh minute, and that was the goal that made the result safe for the home side.

Possession is the share of time each side has the ball, and Birmingham had 60% of it. That is well above their usual 51.9% at home, so the ball spent more time with them than it normally does. Swansea's 40% was also well short of the 57.9% they usually manage away, which is a sign of how much of the match they spent without it.

Birmingham took 19 shots, against a home average of 13 and a league average of 13.2 per side. Their expected goals figure, which scores each chance by how often chances of that kind tend to go in, came to 3.06. Their usual figure is 1.56, and the league average is 1.39, so the quality of what they created was roughly double their normal level. Swansea's chances were fewer and weaker: eight shots against a usual 11, and an expected goals figure of 1.08 against a usual 1.3.

Swansea's goalkeeper, L. Vigouroux, made six saves and was rated 6.9, which is evidence that the home side's chances were not all easy. Stansfield was the match's standout, rated 8.8, with seven shots and goals at twenty-nine and eighty-seven minutes. Max Bird's assist and Stansfield's finishing were the two ingredients the home side needed, and both came from players who had been on the pitch for much of the game.

Birmingham arrived with a solid run at home, winning five of their last six matches there and losing only one. Swansea's away form was less steady, with three wins in their last six games on the road, and the early red card made this trip harder than those figures suggest. Neither side was caught out by something unusual in its recent results, which makes the sending off and the missed penalty the real turning points.

Birmingham are fourth in the table and Swansea fifth, both sides on 26 points.

Player of the matchJ. Stansfield2 goals8.8

M. Bird1 assist7.2

L. Millar1 chance created7.2

L. Vigouroux6 saves6.9