Botafogo won with a third of the ball and the better chances

Botafogo beat Atletico-MG 1-0 with far less of the ball than usual, and the chances, rather than the possession, decided it.

Botafogo had a third of the ball at the Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos and still beat Atletico-MG 1-0. Possession is simply the share of a match that each side spends in control of the ball, and Botafogo's home average is 50.4%. Holding only 33% was a long way below their normal level, so the interesting question is how they won anyway.

The answer lies in expected goals, usually shortened to xG, which scores each shot by how likely it was to go in, judging by where and how it was taken. Botafogo's total came to 1.48, above their usual home figure of 1.32. Nine of their shots came from inside the penalty area, which is where most goals are scored from. Their shot count was lower than usual, with a home average of 16.8 per match, so they were not simply shooting more. They were shooting from better places.

The only goal came in the 19th minute, scored by Edenilson from a pass by Vitinho. It was an early moment, but with so little of the ball, Botafogo needed a goal they could defend, and they held on to it for the rest of the match. Their keeper, Gabriel Batista, made three saves, the most of either side, which is a sign of how often Atletico-MG reached the frame of the goal.

Atletico-MG had 67% of the ball, comfortably above their away average of 51.5%, and completed 567 of their 621 passes, a pass accuracy of 91%. Pass accuracy is the share of passes that reach a team-mate, so nearly nine in ten found their target. Their chances told a different story. Their expected goals came to 0.33, far below their away average of 1.5, and their six shots from inside the box were fewer than Botafogo's nine. Atletico's away average is 1.6 goals per match, and they came away with none.

Gustavo Scarpa was the most influential Atletico-MG player, rated 8.5 and creating two chances for his side. He did not find the net, and Botafogo's defence restricted the openings he was able to create. Botafogo's defensive record was measured against their usual 1.3 expected goals conceded at home, and this match came in well below it. Atletico also scored no goals, against an away average of 1.6, so the defensive work of Botafogo's back line counted for a great deal.

On their home record, Botafogo sit thirteenth, with 39 points from 33 matches. Atletico-MG's away record ranks seventh, with 50 points from the same number of games. Botafogo's home form has been uneven, but this win added three points to a total that has been built on tight results. The side that held two thirds of the possession went home with nothing.

Player of the matchGustavo Scarpa2 chances created8.5

Léo Duarte6 duels won7.9

Alexsander1 chance created7.9

Nahuel Ferraresi1 chance created7.5